Monday, November 8, 2010

STATSBOMB Bye Edition: Halfway Home

It's week 9 in the NFL, and the Redskins are on their bye week.  At this point, they are bruised and embattled, having spent the final two minutes of the first half of the season developing an existential identity crisis.  Who is this team?  What will it be?  Are victories over Green Bay and Philly a taste of things to come, or are losses to St. Louis and Detroit - complete with backbiting and mistrust - indicative of the Burgundy & Gold's fate in 2010?  

Most importantly - wither Donovan, franchise-wise?  Is he the dug-in leader of this team, seeking to install more hardware in the glass case at FedEx at all costs, damn the torpedoes?  Or is he the latest one-and-done symptom of a chronic disease that has Landover in its grasp?  Will shinythingatitus claim another season or will the organization buckle down, come together and will themselves to become a unit?  

Looking forward from the halfway mark.
The key, I think, lies along the nexus I'll call McShanAllen.  If those three get into sync about the state and direction of this franchise and move forward with united purpose, this team might shake the monkey of the past years off its back and return to glory over the next few years.  If they don't move together and begin pulling in opposite directions, looking for the closest and most self-protecting exits, all is lost, and reboot 2011 will reek of deja vu and humiliation.  

The crazy thing is that these two scenarios, one hopeful and one dire, could each manifest in the same record at the end of the season.  The Skins could be 8-8, or even make the playoffs at 9-7, but if they do so in the spirit of the latter philosophy, they'll just be kicking the crisis can down the road.  This season, the issue isn't wins - it's slaying the institutional dragons that feed on negative energy and division.  12 men, together, can't lose.  But 12 men with all the talent you could ask for, playing selfishly - that's the 2010 Dallas Cowboys.  

Franchises like New England, the Giants, and Pittsburgh are great because they hold together and move to the same beat.  That's about institutional culture, and the Redskins do not have a healthy one.  These are the stats that belie that sickly culture:
  • Penalties Committed by Redskins Through 8 Games: 59 (7.4 per game)
  • Yards Lost From Penalties: 401 (57.3 yards per game)
  • Nullified Yards Due to Penalties: 239 (29.9 yards per game)
  • Total Negative Yards Due to Penalties: 640 yards
  • Estimated Additional Points Foregone Due to Penalties (640 / (Total Passing + Rushing + Return Yards [3,771] / Points Scored [155])): 26.3, or an additional 3.2875 points per game
  • Number of Games Lost by 3 Points: 2
  • Redskins Point Differential with Additional 26 points: +11 (it's currently -15)
  • Number of Stalled Drives Following a Penalty: 22
  • Number of Drives 10 Plays or Longer: 7
  • Number of Games Without a Drive Lasting 10 Plays: 4 (Redskins went 1-3 in those games)
  • Number of 3-and-Outs: 27
  • Number of Non-Scoring Drives Shorter than 6 Plays or that Resulted in a Turnover: 54 (averaging 8.75 per game over weeks 5 through 8)
  • McNabb's Completion %: 57.4%
  • McNabb's TD to INT Ratio: 7:8
  • Number of Wide Receivers with a TD Reception: 2
  • Percentage of Redskins Non-Gano Scoring by Defense or Special Teams: 18.8% (3 DEF/ST TDs vs. 13 OFF TDs)
  • Percentage of TDs Scored By Players that are Currently Injured: 43.75% (Portis: 2, Torain: 4, Banks: 1)
Indeed, the Redskins do not have a healthy institutional culture.  Yet.  But there is a foundation on which to build a new football city, one that electrifies fans and intimidates opponents.  That foundation is defense (with a little help from special teams).  The case for hope:
  • Number of Passes Deflected by Washington Defense: 54 (6.75 per game)
  • Number of Fumbles Forced by Washington Defense: 16 (2 per game)
  • Number of INTs by Washington Defense: 9
  • Number of Sacks By Washington Defense: 18
  • Opponents' Field Goal Percentage: 65% (13/20)
  • Opponents' Field Goal Percentage at FedEx: 53.8% (7/13)
  • Number of Hunter Smith Punts Downed Inside the 20: 14
  • Number of Hunter Smith Punts that Resulted in a Touchback: 1
  • Percentage of Hunter Smith Punts Downed Inside the 20: 25%
  • Percentage of Hunter Smith Punts that Resulted in a Touchback: 1.8%
  • Turnovers Caused By Redskins D: 19
  • Redskins' W-L Record at the Bye: 4-4
Bring on the second half.


 

Monday, November 1, 2010

STATSBOMB: Week Eight - Washington Redskins 25, St. Louis Rams 37

Ruh-roh.  Here I was, watching the final minutes of the beatdown that Detroit laid on Washington thinking to myself that we got beat by a surging team that played with passion and conviction - not such a bad way to record an L - but then my television showed me an unfortunate couple of shots.  The first was Rex Grossman wearing a helmet.  The second was Donovan McNabb wearing a baseball cap.  Oh dear.  I am not at all pleased that we came away from this game with not only a loss but a bonafide QB sabotage.  Ineffective play my ass - you should take your lumps and regroup for the next game.  Remember when McNabb led a late comeback against the Packers?  I do.  Let him have the ball.

Anyway, on to the stats from this year's Annual Motown Meltdown (hat tip: Mike Wise), starting with the bad ones, and finishing with a few positives:
  • Average yards per carry by Redskins running backs: 2.3 (35 yards on 15 carries)
  • Net yards gained by Santana Moss minus lost yards on six sacks: -3 yards
  • Net yards gained by offense: 275
  • Net yards gained by Brandon Banks (not counting called-back TD): 271 (213 kickoff return yards, 58 punt return yards)
  • Number of 3 and Out Drives by Redskins: 7
  • Number of Drives where Redskins Lost Yardage or Gave up a Defensive Score: 5
  • 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 14%
  • Number of Penalties: 10 for 77 yards
  • Combo Redskins D made Stafford to Johnson look like: Montana to Rice
  • Redskins' Touchdowns Called Back by Penalty: 1
  • Lions' Touchdowns Allowed by Redskins' Penalty: At least 1
  • Cumulative punting yards by both teams: 759 yards
A few upsides:
  • Minimum number of oh-wow returns by Brandon Banks: 3
  • % of Redskins' Points Scored or Directly set up by Brandon Banks: 88% (22 of 25)
  • Athletic Sack of the Day Award: Albert Haynesworth
  • Passes Deflected by Washington: 9
  • % of Stafford's Passes Either Deflected or Intercepted: 22%
  • Turnovers Forced by Redskins D in 2010: 19
  • Reasons to Think that Detroit's D-Line Won't Abuse Other O-Lines: None - they are nasty