There is a fair amount of debate in Redskins Nation about whether Brandon Banks should make the final 53 man roster in 2011. This article tries to put that debate to bed by laying out why this is a no-brainer in favor of keeping #16. Contra conventional wisdom, the 2011 NFL kickoff rule changes (note the plural) actually benefit a player like Banks.
The argument against keeping Banks is that he's a singular threat as a special teams guy, and that because the Skins have depth at receiver right now, they should keep six true WRs, one of whom will return kicks, rather than keep five true WRs and one return specialist (Banks).
First, you don't need six quality WRs in the NFL. There is no such thing as a six-receiver package, and even if there were, Chris Cooley, Fred Davis, and/or Tim Hightower would competently step up to the task. You can't convince me that adding Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth to a core of Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, Jabar Gaffney, Leonard Hankerson and Terrence Austin is going to make a serious difference on the outcome of a single game, let alone an entire season, and I'm not even certain I understand what the upside could be. It would help mitigate multiple injuries to WRs? That argument doesn't float, as it applies to every position. Why not keep four QBs, because you know, two could get injured? Why not two long snappers?
So the baseline is the team receiving numbers put up by five solid WRs plus two pass-catching TEs. That number must go up with the addition of Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth in order for it to make sense. But any pass theoretically directed to Paul or Stallworth would be one that isn't directed to those other seven guys, which is a dodgy proposition to argue from, because those seven are better players - that's why they are on the roster. But giving the argument the benefit of the doubt and presuming that, say, Stallworth could spell Armstrong so the team can keep running nonstop go routes and fatigue the secondary, I think we're talking about marginal improvement here, maybe 100 yards extra, spread out over the season.
Now let's consider Banks' impact as a pure returner. Leaving aside the powerful atmospheric effect of Banks taking the field, which I'll address at the end, what does it take from a numbers point of view for him to eclipse the value of having Paul or Stallworth there for extra depth?
Very little. If Banks is better than his replacement returner in any measurable way, he will exceed the injury insurance value of a "true" sixth receiver. Special teams plays are hugely important to game outcomes. Let's look at them:
- In 2010, Washington's opponents kicked off to them an average of 5.3 times per game.
- In 2010, Washington's opponents punted to them an average of 5.4 times per game.
- That's a cumulative total of 10.7 return opportunities per game.
- Each team runs an average of 60 to 70 plays per game.
- So return opportunities make up at least 15% of a team's offensive plays.
Stopping right there, would you rather have an average guy who also provides injury insurance in charge of 15% of your team's plays, or an elite guy who does nothing else but make the team better for those 15% of plays?
But here's the rub - you say with a smirk - doesn't the kickoff rule change diminish the value of a kickoff specialist? Many more kickoffs from the 30 yard line reach the end zone for touchbacks as compared with kickoffs from the 35 like last season. The kick returner just isn't as vital this year.
In a vacuum, I would argue that the kick returner's value may be diminished, but not so much as to settle for mediocrity at the position in order to address other needs.
But I don't have to argue in a vacuum. The flaw in the argument is the use of the singular when discussing the kickoff rule change. There are two kickoff rule changes, and both need to be examined. To focus solely on the touchback effect is to ignore the effect of the shortened run-up, which this preseason has demonstrated makes a big difference in average return yards. Let's look at each effect separately.
But I don't have to argue in a vacuum. The flaw in the argument is the use of the singular when discussing the kickoff rule change. There are two kickoff rule changes, and both need to be examined. To focus solely on the touchback effect is to ignore the effect of the shortened run-up, which this preseason has demonstrated makes a big difference in average return yards. Let's look at each effect separately.
The Touchback Effect
Based on the new kickoff from the 35-yard line, which has resulted in 25% more touchbacks than the 16% touchback rate in 2010, the Redskins' kickoff returner can be expected to get about 3.1 live return opportunities per game (5.3 - (41% of 5.3)), down from about 4.5 in 2010 (5.3 - (16% of 5.3)). That's 1.4 fewer kickoff return opportunities per game. Figuring in the fair catch rate on punts (math explained below), the Skins returner will have an average of 7.5 live returns per game, or a shade more than 10% of the live offensive plays. I have trouble buying an argument that is comfortable ceding those 10% of plays to an average player rather than an elite player, but I do acknowledge the basic point that kickoff return opportunities will be reduced in 2011. I also acknowledge the point that kickoff returns will start from worse field position, on average, than they began last year.
The Shortened Run-Up Effect
The other side to the kickoff rule change limits the kicking team's run-up to five yards. To my eye, this change has the potential to benefit the receiving team substantially, as blockers won't be confronted with full speed tacklers as quickly, and the returner will be able to field the ball with a greater distance between him and the tacklers, allowing him to get up to speed before engaging his opponents. Nice theory and all, but do the 2011 preseason games suggest that it's true? They do - to the stats!
The other side to the kickoff rule change limits the kicking team's run-up to five yards. To my eye, this change has the potential to benefit the receiving team substantially, as blockers won't be confronted with full speed tacklers as quickly, and the returner will be able to field the ball with a greater distance between him and the tacklers, allowing him to get up to speed before engaging his opponents. Nice theory and all, but do the 2011 preseason games suggest that it's true? They do - to the stats!
- Median kick return yardage in the 2010 regular season: 22.4 yards
- Median kick return yardage in the 2011 preseason: 24.6 yards
- Number of teams averaging over 25 yards per return in the 2010 regular season: 3 (highest was 26.5 ypr)
- Number of teams averaging over 25 yards per return in the 2011 preseason: 14 (highest is 38.5 ypr, with five teams averaging 30 or more ypr)
Remember also that many of these preseason kicks are being returned from deep in the end zone, much deeper than was typical in the 2010 regular season. You would expect the return averages to decline because of this. But instead, good returners are posting substantially better yardage even though they are starting from worse field position.
The explanation could be:
a) the returners this preseason are way better than last season's guys; or
b) the kicking teams haven't figured out how to be good tacklers yet; or
c) the run-up rule change benefits returners.
Theory a) seems extremely unlikely. I think theory c) is right, but I want to rule out theory b), so I looked at last season's preseason averages, to see if second and third unit preseason special teamers are bad tacklers and account for the higher return averages in preseason.
Last preseason's median return yardage was 24.0 ypr - in between the 2010 regular season and 2011 preseason averages - with twelve teams posting average returns over 25 yards, and three teams surpassing 30 ypr. So the average returns were slightly better in the 2011 preseason, which is impressive given the 35 yard-line kickoff, but not amazingly so.
The real difference between last year's preseason averages and this year's shows up at the top of the stats - those teams with the most successful return games. The average ypr among the top three 2010 preseason teams was 31.6, which was 7.6 yards better than the median team that preseason. In 2011, the average kickoff return among the top three teams is 36.2 yards - 4.6 yards better per return than last year, and 11.6 yards better than the median team. Over the course of a preseason game, a top three team will net 36 more return yards compared with the median team.
Further, because we didn't see an elite top tier in the 2010 preseason, but rather a steady progression from high averages to low, nor did we see an elite top tier in the 2010 regular season, but a similar, steady progression from high averages to low, it's possible that the 2011 preseason's elite return tier will persist into the 2011 regular season. It goes without saying that being in that elite return tier would be a very good thing. Right now, Washington is in that elite tier, averaging 38.5 ypr on four returns. Brandon Banks returned one 58 yards against the Steelers. From six yards deep. On his only kickoff return attempt this preseason.
The Effect of Both Kickoff Rule Changes
The explanation could be:
a) the returners this preseason are way better than last season's guys; or
b) the kicking teams haven't figured out how to be good tacklers yet; or
c) the run-up rule change benefits returners.
Theory a) seems extremely unlikely. I think theory c) is right, but I want to rule out theory b), so I looked at last season's preseason averages, to see if second and third unit preseason special teamers are bad tacklers and account for the higher return averages in preseason.
Last preseason's median return yardage was 24.0 ypr - in between the 2010 regular season and 2011 preseason averages - with twelve teams posting average returns over 25 yards, and three teams surpassing 30 ypr. So the average returns were slightly better in the 2011 preseason, which is impressive given the 35 yard-line kickoff, but not amazingly so.
The real difference between last year's preseason averages and this year's shows up at the top of the stats - those teams with the most successful return games. The average ypr among the top three 2010 preseason teams was 31.6, which was 7.6 yards better than the median team that preseason. In 2011, the average kickoff return among the top three teams is 36.2 yards - 4.6 yards better per return than last year, and 11.6 yards better than the median team. Over the course of a preseason game, a top three team will net 36 more return yards compared with the median team.
Further, because we didn't see an elite top tier in the 2010 preseason, but rather a steady progression from high averages to low, nor did we see an elite top tier in the 2010 regular season, but a similar, steady progression from high averages to low, it's possible that the 2011 preseason's elite return tier will persist into the 2011 regular season. It goes without saying that being in that elite return tier would be a very good thing. Right now, Washington is in that elite tier, averaging 38.5 ypr on four returns. Brandon Banks returned one 58 yards against the Steelers. From six yards deep. On his only kickoff return attempt this preseason.
The Effect of Both Kickoff Rule Changes
It wouldn't be unfair to say that while kickoff return opportunities will certainly decline in quantity in 2011 because of the touchback effect, each kickoff fielded presents a higher probability of a big return compared with last year, due to the slower kicking team and the chance for the returner to get up to full speed before engaging the tacklers. The preseason numbers suggest that elite returners will be able to exploit this shortened run-up effect much more effectively than average returners. Those that focus only on the increased touchbacks and think that the kick returner position is less valuable this year aren't seeing the whole picture. Game done changed, son. Elite kick returners just got more valuable.
Now to make the case that shouldn't need making - Brandon Banks is an elite kick returner. Let's look at his 2010 kickoff return numbers, compiled in 13 games, and some comparisons:
- Banks posted an average kickoff return of 25.1 yards on 46 attempts in 2010.
- Only three teams in the NFL exceeded that average - Atlanta, Chicago and the Jets (all playoff teams).
- Banks scored a touchdown on a kickoff return against the Lions.
- Banks had an additional kickoff return touchdown called back in the same game on an unnecessary penalty that didn't help him score.
- Only five teams scored two or more touchdowns on kickoff returns in 2010. No team had more than three.
- Sixteen NFL teams scored zero kickoff return touchdowns in 2010.
Banks is also a great punt returner. The difference between the median gross punt yards and the median net punt yards in the NFL was 24 yards in 2010. Put another way, the median punt return yardage was 24 yards per team per game.
- Washington averaged 37.8 punt return yards per game (38 of 40 punts returned by Banks), meaning Banks gave Washington 13.8 extra yards on punt returns per game, compared to the league median.
- Banks' 11.3 average punt return yardage was tied for fourth in the league (minimum 20 punt returns).
- The three players to post better averages in 2010 fair caught the ball 25.9% of the time.
- Banks fair caught the ball 17.9% of the time, meaning that he didn't cherry pick his return opportunities as often as those three.
- Only nine teams scored punt return touchdowns; 23 teams scored zero.
- In the Vikings game, Banks had a game-changing punt return touchdown nullified by a penalty that did not help him score.
So to sum up the numbers, assuming that whoever were to fill in as a return specialist would perform at the 2010 NFL average in 2011, and using Banks' 2010 numbers, #16 would have:
- Given the Redskins 2.7 yards better starting field position from kickoffs (8.9 yards more per game; 142.4 yards more per season)
- Scored 0.5 more kickoff return TDs (league median is between 0 and 1)
- Scored 1 more kickoff return TD nullified by penalty
- Given the Redskins 0.8 extra yards per punt return (3.5 yards more per game; 55.4 yards more per season)
- Scored 1 more punt return TD nullified by penalty
- Totals versus Average Returner: 197.8 more return yards, 3.5 more points, and if the penalties are avoided, 24.5 more points
So using the numerical case for keeping Banks, I want to highlight the most important number there: avoiding penalties, 24.5 more points per season, or 1.5 more points per game.
Is Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth worth 1.5 more points per game?
I note that these figures already discount for the reduced kickoff return opportunities, so they are conservative. Further, they don't account for the pro-returner shortened run-up effect, because it's hard to estimate its statistical impact for the regular season. However, we can say that Banks is exactly the type of returner to be able to benefit from the shortened run-up effect, as he can get his wheels going before engaging the tacklers, and see where they've taken bad angles that he can capitalize on. As posited above, elite kickoff returners will have a remarkable year in 2011, and they will be in demand in 2012 once the conventional wisdom catches up.
Is Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth worth 1.5 more points per game?
I note that these figures already discount for the reduced kickoff return opportunities, so they are conservative. Further, they don't account for the pro-returner shortened run-up effect, because it's hard to estimate its statistical impact for the regular season. However, we can say that Banks is exactly the type of returner to be able to benefit from the shortened run-up effect, as he can get his wheels going before engaging the tacklers, and see where they've taken bad angles that he can capitalize on. As posited above, elite kickoff returners will have a remarkable year in 2011, and they will be in demand in 2012 once the conventional wisdom catches up.
The Other Reason
Though the numbers are impressive, and the rule changes work in Banks' favor for 2011, what's been left out is Banks' atmospheric value. As noted in many other outlets, a kick or punt to Brandon Banks is one of the most exciting moments of a Redskins' game - everyone at FedEx Field wants to see what he'll do. Aside from a red zone 3rd down, a Banks return is one of the few guaranteed moments of high drama, of bated breath, of fandom crystallized into a moment of hope and expectation. It is the thing we watch when we watch sports. I wouldn't trade Banks' returns in for a system that guaranteed exactly 4.0 yards per 50 gut rush, because while that system would be infallible if run on every down, it wouldn't be special. It wouldn't be fun. In 2010, the fates conspired to give Redskins Nation a player that we could see upon first glance was special, as he was the smallest player in the NFL. But as the season unfolded, from the moment he broke one during the Bills preseason game and did the John Wall dance in the endzone, to the moment in Week 17 when the Giants squib-kicked to Mike Sellers for fear of Banks, we became enamored with his electric spirit and remembered why we love sport.
Redskins Nation should be united in keeping Banks in burgundy and gold.
