What's Wrong with the NFL's Salary Cap Penalty Against the Redskins

I'm mad as hell.  But first, the facts:

At 2:55pm on March 12, 2012 Adam Schefter tweeted that "NFL is taking away millions of dolllar of salary-cap space from Cowboys and Redskins for how they front-loaded deals during uncapped year."  Eighteen minutes later, Shefter tweeted that "Cowboys lose $10 million in cap space, Redskins lose $36 million in space. Can split it over 2012 and 2013 any way they want. More at ESPN."  Three minutes after that, Schefter reported: "All that money goes to 28 other teams -- $1.6 million each -- except for Saints and Raiders, who don't get any but don't lose any."

This news broke two and a half days after the Redskins had agreed to trade three first round draft picks and a second round draft pick to the St. Louis Rams for the number two overall draft position, in order to secure the right to draft Robert Griffin III on April 26, 2012.  The news also came 25 hours prior to the opening of free agency, where prior to this news, the Redskins had been under the impression that they had over $40 million in cap space to use to build a roster to support their rookie QB.

Later that afternoon, the NFL released the following statement:

The Management Council Executive Committee determined that the contract practices of a small number of clubs during the 2010 league year created an unacceptable risk to future competitive balance, particularly in light of the relatively modest salary cap growth projected for the new agreement’s early years.  To remedy these effects and preserve competitive balance throughout the league, the parties to the CBA agreed to adjustments to team salary for the 2012 and 2013 seasons.  These agreed-upon adjustments were structured in a manner that will not affect the salary cap or player spending on a league-wide basis.

 The NFL stated that it would not explain these penalties further.

So leaving aside the speculation about how the penalties were calculated and why certain teams were punished, the Management Committee Executive Council ("MCEC") raised the issue of an unacceptable risk to future competitive balance, and the parties to the CBA - the owners and the player's union - agreed to dock the Redskins and the Cowboys in the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Let's break that down a bit:

No Rule Violations
You'll notice what's not in the MCEC's statement: a rule that the Redskins or Cowboys violated.  That's because they didn't violate any rules.  They simply didn't bow to the NFL's empty warning that they should behave as if there was a CBA in place or ... we'll get you and your little dog too.  But it's the NFL's fault that 2010 was an uncapped year - neither the Redskins nor the Cowboys made that happen.  They simply played by the rules that existed (or didn't).  It's not like the 2009 salary cap was rooted in morality such that teams should follow it even if it weren't a rule, like rules against, say cheating by filming your opponents in practice or deliberately trying to injure another person.  The 2009 salary cap was a rule with the same moral force as an expired parking meter ticket.  Again, and this should be the determining fact: there was no salary cap in place in 2010 and it was the NFL's fault there wasn't a cap.

Unacceptable Risk to Future Competitive Balance?
The goal of the salary cap system is to create competitive balance among the NFL teams.  That's admirable, and we should all support the rules that are designed to maintain a fair and balanced NFL.  But that doesn't mean teams should go beyond the NFL's rules and impose additional restrictions on themselves that they decide to be in line with the spirit of the salary cap and salary floor rules.  What the MCEC appears to be saying here is that the Redskins and Cowboys violated no rule, but are being punished for creating an unacceptable risk to parity, not now but in the future.  How can a penalty for creating an unacceptable risk that something that might hurt an abstract goal of the NFL in the future be legitimate?  The NFL also has the goal of presenting a family friendly television broadcast - does that mean they could penalize Rex Ryan today for posing an unacceptable risk of being overheard dropping F bombs in future broadcasts?

When you create a precedent as fuzzy as this, it's basically a license for the MCEC to act however they feel, without any accountability or any attempt to demonstrate the fairness of their actions.  Where's the line between an acceptable risk to future competitive balance and an unacceptable risk?  Is it a dollar amount?  Is it a specific number of player contracts?

And lets also take a moment here to reflect on what actually happened after the supposedly anti-competitive salary behavior in 2010.  I guess the NFL's point is that in 2010, they were scared that the Redskins' uncapped payments would unduly free up cap space in 2011 and beyond, such that they would have a competitive advantage against other teams who followed the 2009 rules in 2010 out of the goodness of their hearts.  But those payments went to Albert Haynesworth ($21 million) and DeAngelo Hall ($15 million).  Before the 2011 season, Haynesworth was traded away for basically nothing.  In 2011, Hall had his worst statistical season and was ineffective in coverage.  The Redskins won fewer games in 2011 than in 2010.  So the NFL is saying that, to create competitive balance, the Skins should have had less cap space in 2011, which means they'd have less money to entice good players with, which means they'd probably have been worse.  If the Redskins were worse in 2011, there would have been less competitive balance in the NFL.  Nice logic MCEC.  I should note that the 8-8 Cowboys didn't make the playoffs in 2011 either.

Penalties for Bad Soothsaying?
The second rationale for the MCEC's penalties involve the growth rate of the salary cap after 2010.  If in fact a CBA existed in 2010 that said the cap will grow at about 1% each year, then maybe the MCEC's argument that the penalty is appropriate "particularly in light of the relatively modest salary cap growth projected for the new agreement’s early years" would make some sense.  But there was no CBA in 2010 and certainly no projections of future salary caps in any future hypothetical CBA.  In 2010, the Redskins and Cowboys had absolutely no idea what the salary cap in 2011 would be - in fact, it was possible that there would be no salary cap in 2011 or ever again.  If there was a cap, it was certainly possible that it would go up substantially.  Only in 2011, when the new CBA was signed, did it become apparent what the salary cap in 2011 and beyond would look like.  So the MCEC justifies its penalties for 2010 conduct by saying the Redskins and Cowboys should have predicted the future CBA's salary caps and realized their paltry growth rate would magnify the competitive advantage of their 2010 actions?  Sorry DC and Dallas, you should have been better at predicting the future.

A Year Late
If the MCEC had issued these penalties at the start of the 2011 season, they might be slightly closer to legitimate.  At least in that case, you'd have whatever nebulous threats the NFL made in 2010 actually made effective in a timely manner.  If don't recall last summer, the owners and players spent a fair amount of time talking about how things should be handled in 2011, and while I haven't read the CBA, it's my understanding that it doesn't say diddly about penalties for 2010 salary moves.  So this decision comes out of the blue, a year late, with an absurd explanation that the Redskins and Cowboys didn't break any rules but did things in 2010 that would make them too much better than the rest of the NFL last season (again, records of 5-11 and 8-8) to not get punished in 2012 and 2013.

A Day Before Free Agency Begins
As recounted above, this news was handed down one day before free agency begins.  The Redskins and Cowboys organization have no doubt been working hard to prepare for free agency, developing strategies for their offseasons based on what they have to work work, namely their cap room.  Not only does this throw a huge monkey wrench into all that planning, think of what this news does to the teams' ability to sign free agents, who might decline to join a team for no other reason than they are unsure whether the league will allow them to get paid at their contract rate.  If I'm a free agent in demand, I wouldn't want to go to a team with that kind of uncertainty.
Oh, and as to the Redskins in particular, there's that little issue of the trade of four top draft picks with St. Louis, agreed to when the Skins were looking at around $40 million to use in free agency.  Think that trade wouldn't be affected by cutting $36 mil from that number?
    
Double Punishment
Even if these penalties were legitimate, the MCEC appears to have bribed the players' union into not opposing it by double punishing the teams.  I'll explain what I mean about double punishment.  Let's say everyone agreed that a team violated the salary cap by $10 million.  To remedy that violation, there's two ways you can do it.  One way is to dock that team $10 million in salary cap space, the other is to allow all the other teams to get a pro rata share of the $10 million in extra cap space.  Either way, you make amends for a $10 million violation with $10 million of either punishment or compensation.  But the way the MCEC penalties work, the Redskins and Cowboys lose a combined $46 million in cap space, AND the eligible teams get a pro rata share of the $46 million - that's a $92 million swing.  The reason this happened appears to be that the player's union wouldn't agree to cut $46 million out of their players' pockets for non-violations of any rule in 2010, so the MCEC extorted their consent by a) threatening to lower the 2012 salary cap; and b) bribing them by adding $46 million to those teams that bowed to the NFL's illegitimate request that teams not pay their players market salaries in 2010.  Classy move, MCEC.  And by classy, I mean capricious, vindictive and petulant.

2010 Underspending Goes Unpunished
2010 was both an uncapped year and an unfloored year, meaning that unlike 2009 when teams had to pay their players at least $109 million in the aggregate, teams could pay their players way less.  At least five cheapskate teams plummeted through the 2009 floor in 2010, paying their players less than $90 million altogether.  But this behavior, which hurts the players and sends a clear message that these teams do not want to win but rather want to make more money for their owners, does not pose an unacceptable risk to competitive balance?

The Cowboys' Unexplained Discount
Some commentators have noted that the Redskins' penalty equals the 2010 payments to Haynesworth and Hall, but the Cowboys $10 million penalty is $7 million short of that team's cap-ignoring payment to Miles Austin in 2010.  Why the discount, or rather, why the lack of a discount for the Redskins? 

The MCEC makes this guy look like King Solomon.

Legitimacy's Requirements
For these penalties to have any semblance of fairness and legitimacy, they need to be accompanied by far more explanatory details and at least a spreadsheet or two.  We would need to see the "warnings" that the NFL issued in 2010, and the specific behavior they told teams to avoid.  Even today, NFL news feeds are rife with stories about cap maneuvering through restructuring and bonus payments.  Assuming the NFL won't be penalizing all these teams in say, 2014, for these actions, they need to come forward with an explanation of why what the Redskins and Cowboys did in an uncapped year is worse than the fundamentals of "capology."  Further, we'd need to see a spreadsheet of every team's salary decisions in 2010, and the line at which good management becomes anti-competitive.
There's also no explanation for why these extreme penalties are proportional to the "unacceptable risks" caused by the teams.  The penalty for the Redskins amounts to fully 30% of a season's roster cost.  If each player were paid the same amount, the Redskins would have to go into Opening Day short 16 players if they took the penalty all in one year.  The fact that they can split the penalty over two years is little relief, as it still amounts to the same insanely high cost, just suffered more slowly.  For comparison, in response to Spygate, one of the most blatantly anti-competitive scandals in the league's history, the NFL took away one first round draft pick, which is far less severe than 30% of a roster.  Even if there were a violation of a rule here, the only appropriately proportional penalty would be to assign the disputed 2010 payments pro rata to the rest of the team's salary caps.

These penalties are unfair, illegitimate and tone deaf.  This wasn't some simmering issue that people were clamoring for the NFL to deal with.  Maybe a few owners were ticked off about this when it happened, but wasn't the teams' mediocrity in 2011 enough to dispel their annoyance?  Now you have the NFL screwing over two franchises at an incredibly inopportune time for wanting to pay their players market salaries in 2010.

The Redskins and Cowboys should fight these penalties as hard as they can.

Why the 2011 Kickoff Rule Changes Make Brandon Banks Even More Valuable Than He Was in 2010

There is a fair amount of debate in Redskins Nation about whether Brandon Banks should make the final 53 man roster in 2011.  This article tries to put that debate to bed by laying out why this is a no-brainer in favor of keeping #16.  Contra conventional wisdom, the 2011 NFL kickoff rule changes (note the plural) actually benefit a player like Banks. 

The argument against keeping Banks is that he's a singular threat as a special teams guy, and that because the Skins have depth at receiver right now, they should keep six true WRs, one of whom will return kicks, rather than keep five true WRs and one return specialist (Banks).  

First, you don't need six quality WRs in the NFL.  There is no such thing as a six-receiver package, and even if there were, Chris Cooley, Fred Davis, and/or Tim Hightower would competently step up to the task.  You can't convince me that adding Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth to a core of Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, Jabar Gaffney, Leonard Hankerson and Terrence Austin is going to make a serious difference on the outcome of a single game, let alone an entire season, and I'm not even certain I understand what the upside could be.  It would help mitigate multiple injuries to WRs?  That argument doesn't float, as it applies to every position.  Why not keep four QBs, because you know, two could get injured?  Why not two long snappers? 

So the baseline is the team receiving numbers put up by five solid WRs plus two pass-catching TEs.  That number must go up with the addition of Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth in order for it to make sense.  But any pass theoretically directed to Paul or Stallworth would be one that isn't directed to those other seven guys, which is a dodgy proposition to argue from, because those seven are better players - that's why they are on the roster.  But giving the argument the benefit of the doubt and presuming that, say, Stallworth could spell Armstrong so the team can keep running nonstop go routes and fatigue the secondary, I think we're talking about marginal improvement here, maybe 100 yards extra, spread out over the season.

Now let's consider Banks' impact as a pure returner.  Leaving aside the powerful atmospheric effect of Banks taking the field, which I'll address at the end, what does it take from a numbers point of view for him to eclipse the value of having Paul or Stallworth there for extra depth?

Very little.  If Banks is better than his replacement returner in any measurable way, he will exceed the injury insurance value of a "true" sixth receiver.  Special teams plays are hugely important to game outcomes.  Let's look at them:

• In 2010, Washington's opponents kicked off to them an average of 5.3 times per game.
• In 2010, Washington's opponents punted to them an average of 5.4 times per game.
• That's a cumulative total of 10.7 return opportunities per game.
• Each team runs an average of 60 to 70 plays per game.
• So return opportunities make up at least 15% of a team's offensive plays.

Stopping right there, would you rather have an average guy who also provides injury insurance in charge of 15% of your team's plays, or an elite guy who does nothing else but make the team better for those 15% of plays? 

But here's the rub - you say with a smirk - doesn't the kickoff rule change diminish the value of a kickoff specialist?  Many more kickoffs from the 30 yard line reach the end zone for touchbacks as compared with kickoffs from the 35 like last season.  The kick returner just isn't as vital this year.

In a vacuum, I would argue that the kick returner's value may be diminished, but not so much as to settle for mediocrity at the position in order to address other needs.

But I don't have to argue in a vacuum.  The flaw in the argument is the use of the singular when discussing the kickoff rule change.  There are two kickoff rule changes, and both need to be examined.  To focus solely on the touchback effect is to ignore the effect of the shortened run-up, which this preseason has demonstrated makes a big difference in average return yards.  Let's look at each effect separately.

The Touchback Effect

Based on the new kickoff from the 35-yard line, which has resulted in 25% more touchbacks than the 16% touchback rate in 2010, the Redskins' kickoff returner can be expected to get about 3.1 live return opportunities per game (5.3 - (41% of 5.3)), down from about 4.5 in 2010 (5.3 - (16% of 5.3)).  That's 1.4 fewer kickoff return opportunities per game.  Figuring in the fair catch rate on punts (math explained below), the Skins returner will have an average of 7.5 live returns per game, or a shade more than 10% of the live offensive plays.  I have trouble buying an argument that is comfortable ceding those 10% of plays to an average player rather than an elite player, but I do acknowledge the basic point that kickoff return opportunities will be reduced in 2011.  I also acknowledge the point that kickoff returns will start from worse field position, on average, than they began last year.

The Shortened Run-Up Effect

The other side to the kickoff rule change limits the kicking team's run-up to five yards.  To my eye, this change has the potential to benefit the receiving team substantially, as blockers won't be confronted with full speed tacklers as quickly, and the returner will be able to field the ball with a greater distance between him and the tacklers, allowing him to get up to speed before engaging his opponents.  Nice theory and all, but do the 2011 preseason games suggest that it's true?  They do - to the stats!

• Median kick return yardage in the 2010 regular season: 22.4 yards
• Median kick return yardage in the 2011 preseason: 24.6 yards
• Number of teams averaging over 25 yards per return in the 2010 regular season: 3 (highest was 26.5 ypr)
• Number of teams averaging over 25 yards per return in the 2011 preseason: 14 (highest is 38.5 ypr, with five teams averaging 30 or more ypr)

Remember also that many of these preseason kicks are being returned from deep in the end zone, much deeper than was typical in the 2010 regular season.  You would expect the return averages to decline because of this.  But instead, good returners are posting substantially better yardage even though they are starting from worse field position.

The explanation could be:
a) the returners this preseason are way better than last season's guys; or
b) the kicking teams haven't figured out how to be good tacklers yet; or
c) the run-up rule change benefits returners.

Theory a) seems extremely unlikely.  I think theory c) is right, but I want to rule out theory b), so I looked at last season's preseason averages, to see if second and third unit preseason special teamers are bad tacklers and account for the higher return averages in preseason.

Last preseason's median return yardage was 24.0 ypr - in between the 2010 regular season and 2011 preseason averages - with twelve teams posting average returns over 25 yards, and three teams surpassing 30 ypr.  So the average  returns were slightly better in the 2011 preseason, which is impressive given the 35 yard-line kickoff, but not amazingly so.

The real difference between last year's preseason averages and this year's shows up at the top of the stats  - those teams with the most successful return games.  The average ypr among the top three 2010 preseason teams was 31.6, which was 7.6 yards better than the median team that preseason.  In 2011, the average kickoff return among the top three teams is 36.2 yards - 4.6 yards better per return than last year, and 11.6 yards better than the median team.  Over the course of a preseason game, a top three team will net 36 more return yards compared with the median team.

Further, because we didn't see an elite top tier in the 2010 preseason, but rather a steady progression from high averages to low, nor did we see an elite top tier in the 2010 regular season, but a similar, steady progression from high averages to low, it's possible that the 2011 preseason's elite return tier will persist into the 2011 regular season.  It goes without saying that being in that elite return tier would be a very good thing.  Right now, Washington is in that elite tier, averaging 38.5 ypr on four returns.  Brandon Banks returned one 58 yards against the Steelers.  From six yards deep.  On his only kickoff return attempt this preseason.

The Effect of Both Kickoff Rule Changes

It wouldn't be unfair to say that while kickoff return opportunities will certainly decline in quantity in 2011 because of the touchback effect, each kickoff fielded presents a higher probability of a big return compared with last year, due to the slower kicking team and the chance for the returner to get up to full speed before engaging the tacklers.  The preseason numbers suggest that elite returners will be able to exploit this shortened run-up effect much more effectively than average returners.  Those that focus only on the increased touchbacks and think that the kick returner position is less valuable this year aren't seeing the whole picture.  Game done changed, son.  Elite kick returners just got more valuable. 

Now to make the case that shouldn't need making - Brandon Banks is an elite kick returner.  Let's look at his 2010 kickoff return numbers, compiled in 13 games, and some comparisons:

• Banks posted an average kickoff return of 25.1 yards on 46 attempts in 2010.
• Only three teams in the NFL exceeded that average - Atlanta, Chicago and the Jets (all playoff teams).
• Banks scored a touchdown on a kickoff return against the Lions.
• Banks had an additional kickoff return touchdown called back in the same game on an unnecessary penalty that didn't help him score.
• Only five teams scored two or more touchdowns on kickoff returns in 2010.  No team had more than three.
• Sixteen NFL teams scored zero kickoff return touchdowns in 2010.

Banks is also a great punt returner.  The difference between the median gross punt yards and the median net punt yards in the NFL was 24 yards in 2010.  Put another way, the median punt return yardage was 24 yards per team per game.

• Washington averaged 37.8 punt return yards per game (38 of 40 punts returned by Banks), meaning Banks gave Washington 13.8 extra yards on punt returns per game, compared to the league median.
• Banks' 11.3 average punt return yardage was tied for fourth in the league (minimum 20 punt returns).
• The three players to post better averages in 2010 fair caught the ball 25.9% of the time.
• Banks fair caught the ball 17.9% of the time, meaning that he didn't cherry pick his return opportunities as often as those three.
• Only nine teams scored punt return touchdowns; 23 teams scored zero.
• In the Vikings game, Banks had a game-changing punt return touchdown nullified by a penalty that did not help him score.

So to sum up the numbers, assuming that whoever were to fill in as a return specialist would perform at the 2010 NFL average in 2011, and using Banks' 2010 numbers, #16 would have:

• Given the Redskins 2.7 yards better starting field position from kickoffs (8.9 yards more per game; 142.4 yards more per season)
• Scored 0.5 more kickoff return TDs (league median is between 0 and 1)
• Scored 1 more kickoff return TD nullified by penalty
• Given the Redskins 0.8 extra yards per punt return (3.5 yards more per game; 55.4 yards more per season)
• Scored 1 more punt return TD nullified by penalty
• Totals versus Average Returner:  197.8 more return yards, 3.5 more points, and if the penalties are avoided, 24.5 more points

So using the numerical case for keeping Banks, I want to highlight the  most important number there: avoiding penalties, 24.5 more points per season, or 1.5 more points per game.

Is Niles Paul or Donte Stallworth worth 1.5 more points per game?

I note that these figures already discount for the reduced kickoff return opportunities, so they are conservative.  Further, they don't account for the pro-returner shortened run-up effect, because it's hard to estimate its statistical impact for the regular season.  However, we can say that Banks is exactly the type of returner to be able to benefit from the shortened run-up effect, as he can get his wheels going before engaging the tacklers, and see where they've taken bad angles that he can capitalize on.  As posited above, elite kickoff returners will have a remarkable year in 2011, and they will be in demand in 2012 once the conventional wisdom catches up. 

The Other Reason

Though the numbers are impressive, and the rule changes work in Banks' favor for 2011, what's been left out is Banks' atmospheric value.  As noted in many other outlets, a kick or punt to Brandon Banks is one of the most exciting moments of a Redskins' game - everyone at FedEx Field wants to see what he'll do.  Aside from a red zone 3rd down, a Banks return is one of the few guaranteed moments of high drama, of bated breath, of fandom crystallized into a moment of hope and expectation.  It is the thing we watch when we watch sports.  I wouldn't trade Banks' returns in for a system that guaranteed exactly 4.0 yards per 50 gut rush, because while that system would be infallible if run on every down, it wouldn't be special.  It wouldn't be fun.  In 2010, the fates conspired to give Redskins Nation a player that we could see upon first glance was special, as he was the smallest player in the NFL.  But as the season unfolded, from the moment he broke one during the Bills preseason game and did the John Wall dance in the endzone, to the moment in Week 17 when the Giants squib-kicked to Mike Sellers for fear of Banks, we became enamored with his electric spirit and remembered why we love sport.

Redskins Nation should be united in keeping Banks in burgundy and gold.

STATSBOMB: 2010 Season Recap and Top 5 Most Illuminating Stats

While the Skins racked up 2 more wins than they managed in 2009, 2010 did not feel like the Great Leap Forward that we had hoped Shanaplan would preside over.  I'll get to the stats that I feel best tell the tale of the season in a bit, but first a note on the atmospherics of 2010.

From a fan memory perspective, two events stand out most about last year.  First, the almost childish war of wills between Shanahan and Haynesworth leading up to the season, culminating in the image of big moosey having himself a lay down during the Eagles game.

Second, the benching of Donovan McNabb at the end of the Lions game, launching an all-too familiar soap opera marked by disparaging remarks, an overly generous contract extension that looked like a mea culpa and then the treat of watching Rex Grossman take the field for the final three games.  Way to preserve McNabb's trade value, guys.

Yep.  That's about right.

I feel bad for McNabb, who's a great player in a bad situation, but I feel worse for the Redskins, realizing that they gave up two valuable draft picks to get him, spent considerable energy getting Redskins Nation to overcome their prior resentment of #5 with dreams of division titles, and then sabotaged team unity and the chance to move on from the McNabb experiment at least somewhat close to net neutral from a draft perspective.

But the past is the past, and as we look forward to what we hope will be football in 2011, there are some telling stats that deserve priority attention, because they sketch out the nature of the work ahead.  The tricky thing about watching games last season was that there didn't seem to be a singular, capital-P Problem that repeated week after week.  One week the Skins couldn't get any yards on the ground, then the next Torain trucks for a c-note.  Two weeks after losing by 14 to the Rams we're grinding out a win against the eventual Super Bowl champs.  With the exception of the MNF Eagles game, I always had the feeling that our defense could either stop a team or force a turnover, but very often that faith was demonstrably misplaced.

So keeping those idiosyncrasies in mind, here are my top 5 stats to focus on improving for a successful 2011 (and by successful, I mean 8 wins, at least one against the Cowboys).

   1.  Rushing Yards per Game: 91.3 on an average of just under 22 carries

Our opponents in 2010 rushed an average of 28 times per game, and while their commitment may be due more to the pores in our D than to better strategy, the Redskins' rush deficit meant that they couldn't control the clock as well and that defenders could feel more comfortable keying up blitzes.  The Skins threw the ball an average of 39 times per game - subtract an average of 5 screens per game and you still have a wide disparity between the playcalling.  All those dropbacks netted 46 sacks for the opposition.  This year we're loaded with young legs at tailback, so there's no excuse to limit the run to keep a stud fresh.  The o-line is not among the league's elite, but this is the year for the Shanaplan zone blocking scheme to sink or swim.  These guys need reps together so they can learn each other's tendencies.  Stick to the run for future success.

• Ideal 2011 Statline Improvement: +5 carries per game 

    2.  Made Field Goals Percentage: 68.6% (24 of 38)

This stat, while ugly on its face, doesn't even capture the full horror.  The Texans game was lost after a blocked 29 yarder in the fourth quarter.  Gano missed from 34 and 24(!) in the Tampa Bay game, which also featured a botched extra point and a final score of 17-16.  And Graham blanked his three attempts from 50+ yards, making his last attempt in week 11, after which coach abandoned all hope of making the long shot.  I'm not hanging it all on Gano, but teams that miss makeable field goals with regularity are teams that don't have their shit together.  Partly it seems FedEx is to blame - opponents managed to convert only 73.7% of their kicks in Landover, as compared with the visitors posting a 92.6% field goal success rate in Jerry Jones World.  But still, get your shit together guys.

• Ideal 2011 Statline Improvement: 74%+ field goal make rate, with at least two 50+ boots through the uprights

    3.  Interceptions: 14

To make this stat more stark, let's take out D-Hall's record-tying 4-INT game against the diabetic douchebag and we're left with 10 picks over 15 games.  Even the Giants' maligned secondary posted an average of 1.0 interception per game.  Someone once said, if you take the ball away from the other team before they score on you, you get more chances to score points, and it's good for game winning and stuff.  Preach.

• Ideal 2011 Statline Improvement: 1.25 picks per game, or 20 on the season

    4.  Sacks: 29

Brian Orakpo.  Albert Haynesworth.  London Fletcher playing sure-handed catcher behind the line.  And an 11-sack dropoff from 2009's sack tally.  I blame Haslett for this one.  The silver lining was the number of holding penalties drawn by Rak, including a memorable one glimpsed through the fog at the end of the season opener.  But averaging less than 2 per game with that kind of talent?  C'mon, man!  Unleash Kerrakpo!

• Ideal 2011 Statline Improvement: 41+ sacks

   5.  Washington Time of Possession as %: 46.5%

While that number seems close to 50%, time of possession is a zero sum stat, meaning that the Skins' opponents controlled the football 15% more than the Redskins did.  That 15% is a huge edge in wearing down a defense.  The Redskins were sixth from the bottom in terms of time of possession.  Their opponents' 4 minutes and 10 seconds of extra possession allowed them to run an average of nine more plays.  Of the Skins ten losses, six were decided by a touchdown or less.  You can't convince me that running nine more plays wouldn't have affected the outcome of most of those games.

• Ideal 2011 Statline Improvement: 50.1% Time of Possession (I'm not asking for the moon here)

So there you have my top 5 most illuminating stats and my prescription for future success.  If you wish to add to or dispute my selections, holler with your comments. 

Bring the noise.

 

STATSBOMB Bye Edition: Halfway Home

It's week 9 in the NFL, and the Redskins are on their bye week.  At this point, they are bruised and embattled, having spent the final two minutes of the first half of the season developing an existential identity crisis.  Who is this team?  What will it be?  Are victories over Green Bay and Philly a taste of things to come, or are losses to St. Louis and Detroit - complete with backbiting and mistrust - indicative of the Burgundy & Gold's fate in 2010?  

Most importantly - wither Donovan, franchise-wise?  Is he the dug-in leader of this team, seeking to install more hardware in the glass case at FedEx at all costs, damn the torpedoes?  Or is he the latest one-and-done symptom of a chronic disease that has Landover in its grasp?  Will shinythingatitus claim another season or will the organization buckle down, come together and will themselves to become a unit?  

Looking forward from the halfway mark.

The key, I think, lies along the nexus I'll call McShanAllen.  If those three get into sync about the state and direction of this franchise and move forward with united purpose, this team might shake the monkey of the past years off its back and return to glory over the next few years.  If they don't move together and begin pulling in opposite directions, looking for the closest and most self-protecting exits, all is lost, and reboot 2011 will reek of deja vu and humiliation.  

The crazy thing is that these two scenarios, one hopeful and one dire, could each manifest in the same record at the end of the season.  The Skins could be 8-8, or even make the playoffs at 9-7, but if they do so in the spirit of the latter philosophy, they'll just be kicking the crisis can down the road.  This season, the issue isn't wins - it's slaying the institutional dragons that feed on negative energy and division.  12 men, together, can't lose.  But 12 men with all the talent you could ask for, playing selfishly - that's the 2010 Dallas Cowboys.  

Franchises like New England, the Giants, and Pittsburgh are great because they hold together and move to the same beat.  That's about institutional culture, and the Redskins do not have a healthy one.  These are the stats that belie that sickly culture:

• Penalties Committed by Redskins Through 8 Games: 59 (7.4 per game)
• Yards Lost From Penalties: 401 (57.3 yards per game)
• Nullified Yards Due to Penalties: 239 (29.9 yards per game)
• Total Negative Yards Due to Penalties: 640 yards
• Estimated Additional Points Foregone Due to Penalties (640 / (Total Passing + Rushing + Return Yards [3,771] / Points Scored [155])): 26.3, or an additional 3.2875 points per game
• Number of Games Lost by 3 Points: 2
• Redskins Point Differential with Additional 26 points: +11 (it's currently -15)
• Number of Stalled Drives Following a Penalty: 22
• Number of Drives 10 Plays or Longer: 7
• Number of Games Without a Drive Lasting 10 Plays: 4 (Redskins went 1-3 in those games)
• Number of 3-and-Outs: 27
• Number of Non-Scoring Drives Shorter than 6 Plays or that Resulted in a Turnover: 54 (averaging 8.75 per game over weeks 5 through 8)
• McNabb's Completion %: 57.4%
• McNabb's TD to INT Ratio: 7:8
• Number of Wide Receivers with a TD Reception: 2
• Percentage of Redskins Non-Gano Scoring by Defense or Special Teams: 18.8% (3 DEF/ST TDs vs. 13 OFF TDs)
• Percentage of TDs Scored By Players that are Currently Injured: 43.75% (Portis: 2, Torain: 4, Banks: 1)

Indeed, the Redskins do not have a healthy institutional culture.  Yet.  But there is a foundation on which to build a new football city, one that electrifies fans and intimidates opponents.  That foundation is defense (with a little help from special teams).  The case for hope:

• Number of Passes Deflected by Washington Defense: 54 (6.75 per game)
• Number of Fumbles Forced by Washington Defense: 16 (2 per game)
• Number of INTs by Washington Defense: 9
• Number of Sacks By Washington Defense: 18
• Opponents' Field Goal Percentage: 65% (13/20)
• Opponents' Field Goal Percentage at FedEx: 53.8% (7/13)
• Number of Hunter Smith Punts Downed Inside the 20: 14
• Number of Hunter Smith Punts that Resulted in a Touchback: 1
• Percentage of Hunter Smith Punts Downed Inside the 20: 25%
• Percentage of Hunter Smith Punts that Resulted in a Touchback: 1.8%
• Turnovers Caused By Redskins D: 19
• Redskins' W-L Record at the Bye: 4-4

Bring on the second half.

 

STATSBOMB: Week Eight - Washington Redskins 25, St. Louis Rams 37

Ruh-roh.  Here I was, watching the final minutes of the beatdown that Detroit laid on Washington thinking to myself that we got beat by a surging team that played with passion and conviction - not such a bad way to record an L - but then my television showed me an unfortunate couple of shots.  The first was Rex Grossman wearing a helmet.  The second was Donovan McNabb wearing a baseball cap.  Oh dear.  I am not at all pleased that we came away from this game with not only a loss but a bonafide QB sabotage.  Ineffective play my ass - you should take your lumps and regroup for the next game.  Remember when McNabb led a late comeback against the Packers?  I do.  Let him have the ball.

Anyway, on to the stats from this year's Annual Motown Meltdown (hat tip: Mike Wise), starting with the bad ones, and finishing with a few positives:

• Average yards per carry by Redskins running backs: 2.3 (35 yards on 15 carries)
• Net yards gained by Santana Moss minus lost yards on six sacks: -3 yards
• Net yards gained by offense: 275
• Net yards gained by Brandon Banks (not counting called-back TD): 271 (213 kickoff return yards, 58 punt return yards)
• Number of 3 and Out Drives by Redskins: 7
• Number of Drives where Redskins Lost Yardage or Gave up a Defensive Score: 5
• 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 14%
• Number of Penalties: 10 for 77 yards
• Combo Redskins D made Stafford to Johnson look like: Montana to Rice
• Redskins' Touchdowns Called Back by Penalty: 1
• Lions' Touchdowns Allowed by Redskins' Penalty: At least 1
• Cumulative punting yards by both teams: 759 yards

A few upsides:

• Minimum number of oh-wow returns by Brandon Banks: 3
• % of Redskins' Points Scored or Directly set up by Brandon Banks: 88% (22 of 25)
• Athletic Sack of the Day Award: Albert Haynesworth
• Passes Deflected by Washington: 9
• % of Stafford's Passes Either Deflected or Intercepted: 22%
• Turnovers Forced by Redskins D in 2010: 19
• Reasons to Think that Detroit's D-Line Won't Abuse Other O-Lines: None - they are nasty

STATSBOMB: Week Seven - Washington Redskins 17, Chicago Bears 14

Pluck out my eyes! This performance looked like a couple of naked mole rats bumping uglies, but at the merciful conclusion, the victory was Washington's, and as they say - a win is a win is a win. In today's Statsbomb, I'm going to flip the script and start with the bad stuff, finishing with the positive stats.

• McNabb's Completion %: 53.1
• Possible Explanation: Donovan has a grudge against the ground and wanted to pummel it with footballs
• McNabb's QB Rating Advantage Over 4-pick Cutler: 2.5
• Points scored after D-Hall's 3rd INT at the Chicago 13 Yard Line: 0
• Number of balls put on the ground by Washington: 6 (5 recovered)
• Latest player infected with the Clinton Portis "Falling Sickness": Brandon Banks
• McNabb's Best Play: Delay of Game penalty, negating pick-six
• Offensive Points Scored: 10
• Best Coaching for the Redskins: Lovie Smith, failing to challenge Cutler's sneak at the goal line
• Consecutive Offsides Penalties Committed by Brian Orakpo: 2
• Number of Drives where Redskins Failed to Gain 10 Yards: 8
• Number of Drives where Redskins Gained 10+ Yards: 7
• Number of Drives Started in Chicago Territory: 4
• Points Scored From Those Drives: 3
• Washington 3-and-outs: 6
• Person Who Should Never Cover Redskins' Games Ever Again After Spending 20 Seconds Arguing that D-Hall's Pick-Six Should Have Drawn an Excessive Celebration Penalty: Troy Aikman
• Rank of Fan Rating for WSH-CHI on NFL.com among Sunday's Games: Last Place
• Candidates for Most Typical Play of the Game
• An errant Cutler throw ricochets off of the front of Landry's helmet, kisses the Goodyear blimp, and then falls complete into the arms of a Bears' O-lineman who catches a case of the falling sickness
• The aforementioned McNabb pick-six negated by a delay of game penalty
• Brandon Banks/Ryan Torain/Donovan McNabb/Chris Cooley fumble, then somehow prevent disaster from happening by recovering
• Donovan McNabb throws the ball at the ground, hard

There was at least one pretty moment on offense.

And the good...

• Number of Rushes Netting 10+ Yards by Torain: 5
• Number of Chicago Drives that Did Not Exceed 3 Plays:  8 (6 3-and-outs, 2 INTs)
• Redskins 2010 Turnover Margin: +8
• Ratio of 2010 Wins to 2009 Wins: 1:1
• Ratio of Total Turnovers Forced in 2010 to 2009: 1:1 (17 turnovers in each year)
• Interceptions by DeAngelo Hall:  F*CKING FOUR F*CKING INTERCEPTIONS IN ONE F*CKING GAME!!!!!
• Returned Prodigal Son: Albert Haynesworth
• Sequence of Chicago's Final Seven Drives Following it's TD: Fumble, INT, INT, Fumble, INT, Punt, INT (it's like Morse Code for "FAIL")
• Rank of D-Hall among Chicago Receivers: T-2nd (4 catches)
• Best Anecdote: In the locker room after the win, the coaches wanted to award the game ball to D-Hall, but he deferred and passed along the honor to Haslett for his scheme.

STATSBOMB: Week Six - Indianapolis Colts 27, Washington Redskins 24

Another excellent loss!  The Redskins made it a hell of a game, and the faithful believing that they can play with anyone (OK, maybe not the Steelers), and make plays in all phases of the game.  On to the stats:

• Best two game streak: Redskins win time of possession battle
• Ryan Torain's YPC: 5.0
• 360 Spins by Torain: At least one
• Redskins 2010 Turnover Margin: +5
• Result of Indy's Third Offensive Play: False Start (way to go FedEx!)
• Dropped or fumbled returns by Brandon Banks: 0
• Reasons to think Banks is NOT the real deal on returns: None
• % of Completed Passes to People Not Named Cooley or Moss: 55.2%
• Average # of Targets for Armstrong over the Last Two Games: 7
• Chris Cooley Catch Rate and YPC: 62.5%, 7.4
• Fred Davis Catch Rate and YPC: 75%, 7.7
• Rank of Santana Moss Among WRs for # of Receptions: T-4
• Clinton Portis' 2010 YPC: 4.0 (on 49 carries)
• Ryan Torain's 2010 YPC: 4.2 (on 61 carries)
• Best Playcall: 4th Qtr, 3:41 left - Following 9 consecutive passing plays, Keiland Williams rushes right for 14 yards to the Indy 5.
• Best performance on a single drive: Philip Buchanan vs. Reggie Wayne in the last 4 minutes of the 4th - two pass deflections

 From the Let's Not Make It A Trend Files:

• Holding penalties on Trent Williams: 2
• Worst Penalty: Illegal Wedge, nullifying 29 yard punt return
• Number of opponent's spectacular receptions that really cost the Redskins: 2

STATSBOMB: Week Five - Green Bay Packers 13, Washington Redskins 16

Hail yeah!  The Skins won at home in a manner that chased away some of the ghosts haunting this team's recent history - they came from behind against a strong opponent and won a close game by gutting it out.  On a day when Dallas reminded us that bad teams find creative ways to lose, Washington found a way to win.  This game was certainly not pretty, especially in the first half, but the Skins made some adjustments and hit Green Bay in the mouth over and over, until they were decimated.  By the end of the game, the Packers D had that disinterested hands-on-hips stance between plays that shows that they had resigned themselves to losing, and Washington seized the opportunity.  A good day for Redskins nation, and while this is exactly the type of game that can't be accurately reflected in statistics, I'll stick to the plan and drop a STATSBOMB:

• % of Redskins' Time of Possession vs. Green Bay: 51.2%
• Redskins' Time of Possession Battle Standings in 2010: 1-4
• Time that Washington held Green Bay scoreless in the Second Half and OT: 29 minutes, 24 seconds
• Green Bay's 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 15.4%
• Washington's 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 29.4%
• # of Redskins WRs with 3 or More Receptions: 3

• # of Punts by Hunter Downed Inside the 20: 5 (62.5%)
• # of Rushes Called by Washington (no QB scrambles): 19
• # of Rushes Called by Green Bay (no QB scrambles): 13
• Penalty Differential: Green Bay +5
• First Down Differential: Washington +4
• Washington First Downs by Penalty: 5
• Washington Season Turnover Margin: +4
• Number of Games Washington Has Had More Turnovers Than Opponent: 0
• % of Sub-50 Yard Field Goal Attempts Made by Graham Gano: 100%
• Average Green Bay Kickoff Return: 13.6 yards
• Rank of Redskins Among NFL Teams with Passes of 50+ yards: 1 (5 plays)
• Name of Team That Played More Physical Football on Sunday: Washington Redskins
• Rank of Laron Landry for Solo Tackles in NFL: 1 (41, + 11 assisted)
• Adjectives Appropriately Describing the Play of Brandon Banks: Electric, Explosive, Field-flipping
• Deafening Chant Begun By Fans in OT, Unprompted by A/V Cues: "DE-FENSE!"
• Approximate Number of Seconds Chants of "Go Pack Go" Lasted Before Being Drowned Out By Skins' Fans: 1
• Players That Are Amazing to Watch This Season: Brian Orakpo, Laron Landry, Anthony Armstrong, Brandon Banks, Hunter Smith, Graham Gano, Lorenzo Alexander, Trent Williams, Donovan McNabb, Chris Cooley, Santana Moss

From the WTF Files:

• Status of Offensive Guard Derrick Dockery: Inactive
• First Half Defensive Gameplan: Run to Spot on Field, Hope that Green Bay Receiver Also Runs to Same Spot
•  Steaks Eaten and Workouts Completed to Slow Jams by Laron Landry Within 13 Hours of Kickoff: 2, 2

STATSBOMB: Week Four - Washington Redskins 17, Philadelphia Eagles 12

It's a win in Philly!  Skins move to 2-0 in the division, but again showcase Jekyll and Hyde tendencies.  The ground game got going and the D played like 2008, but it would be inaccurate to say that this team is scaring anybody.

The bright spots:

• Redskins' rushing yards vs. Eagles: 169 on 35 attempts (4.8 ypc) 
• Chance that a Redskins playcall was a rush: 63.6% (including scrambles)
  
• # of quarters since a Redskins punt return went for 50+ yards: 108
• Ratio of hits by Redskins to hits by Eagles that made you wish Jacked Up still existed: 3:0 (Torain on Mikell, Alexander on Calvin, Hall/Moore on Vick)
• McNabb's first half QB rating: 156.2
• Average receiving yards by Eagles top 2 WRs through weeks 1 through 3:  155 yards per game
  
• % of this average allowed by Redskins: 22% (34 combined yards for Jackson and Maclin)
• Redskins' average yards per reception vs. Eagles: 15.6
• # of fumbles forced by Redskins: 4 (1 recovered)
• Redskins' 2010 Turnover Margin: +3
  
• # of sacks surrendered by Redskins' offensive line: 1
  
• Redskins' players who outperformed their statlines: Albert Haynesworth, Brian Orakpo, Stephon Heyer (for run blocking), Santana Moss (also for run blocking)
• # of holding penalties called on Orakpo's blocker: 2
• Best joke about Orakpo: Dude must not have been held enough as a baby.

 

The better-but-but-still-not-good stats:

• Improvement in % of time of possession from Weeks 1 through 3: +2.3% (45.1% possession vs 42.8%)
• Improvement in offensive play deficit to opponents from Weeks 1 through 3: +8 (Eagles ran 13 more plays than Skins, vs. average of 21 in Weeks 1 through 3)

 From the WTF files:

• Elapsed time in second half before Redskins were down to sole remaining timeout: 86 seconds
• Points scored on that 2-TO drive: 0
• McNabb's second half QB rating: 1.7
• % of total Redskins' points scored in 4th quarter and OT: 4.1% (3/73)
• % of opponents points scored in 4th quarter and OT: 35.4% (28/79)
• # of WRs who had a reception that gained yardage: 2 (Armstrong and Galloway)
• # of times Santana Moss was targeted: 1
• # of plays that could have turned out differently that would result in an 0-4 record: 2
• Nominees for most typical Redskins play:
A)  Donovan McNabb scrambles for crucial first down with less than four minutes left, but runs out of bounds instead of sliding   B)  Carlos Rogers prolongs another game with a dropped INT   C)  The game ends with the other team having a shot to win   D)  Shanahan burns his second TO in the second half with over 28 minutes left   E)  Armstrong gets jacked up by the turf monster

STATSBOMB: Week Three - Washington Redskins 16, St. Louis Rams 30

Ugh. As they did last year against the Lions, the Redskins lost a Week 3 matchup against the worst team in the NFL in truly hope-killing fashion. Aside from the second quarter and the first drive in the third, Washington played horribly, committing stupid penalty after stupid penalty, handing three and outs to the unimpressive Rams defense and generally looking reminiscent of last year's team.

Here is my statistical indictment of the team:

• % of Time of Possession Vs. the Rams: 41.9%
• % of Time of Possession (Season): 42.8%
• Average Additional Plays Run By Opponents Vs. Plays Run By Redskins: 21
• % of Second Half Time of Possession Vs. the Rams: 31.7%
• # of Redskins Second Half Drives Longer than 3 Minutes: 0
• # Shorter than 1 Minute: 2
• Average Redskins Plays Per Drive Against Rams: 4.0
• Average Rams Plays Per Drive Against Redskins: 7.2
• Ratio of Plays Run by Rams to Plays Run by Redskins: 3:2 (75 by Rams to 50 by Skins)
• Rushing Yardage Gained by Redskins in First Half: 115 yards
• Rushing Yardage Gained by Redskins in Second Half: 1 yard
• Time of Final Redskins Rushing Play that Gained Yardage: 13:53 left in the Third Quarter
• # of Rushing Plays Called Afterward, Each Netting Negative Yards: 3
• # of St. Louis Rushing Plays Following Final Positive Redskins Rush: 23
• # That Were Stopped For Negative Yardage: 0
• # of People Who Would Describe Clinton Portis as "Sure-Footed:" 0
• Average Additional Penalties Committed by Redskins With Each Successive Week: 2
• Third Down Conversion % Allowed by Rams in Weeks 1 & 2: 40%
• % Third Downs Converted by Redskins: 10%
• # of Games Where Redskins Have Outgained Their Opponent in 2010: 0
• % of Redskins Points Scored in the 4th Quarter: 5.4% (3/56)
• Ratio of Yards Gained By Stephen Jackson in Weeks 1 & 2 to Total Rams Yards: 212/535 (39.6%)
• % of Rams Yards Gained by Jackson Against the Redskins: 17.5% (64/365)
• Last Time the Rams Scored 30 or More Points: October 19, 2008

A Few Sips of Kool-Aid:

• Average Devin Thomas Kick Return in 2010: 28.4 Yards (11 kick returns for 312 yards)
• Sub 50-YD Field Goals Missed by Gano: 0
• Rams Plays Following a First Down at the Washington 1 Yard Line: 6
• Number of Rams Points Scored on that Drive: 0

Skins Beat Cowboys: The Celebration!

Just thought I'd post this video of the celebration at FedEx Field a couple of minutes after the Skins beat the Cowboys on September 12, 2010.

STATSBOMB: Week Two - Houston Texans 30, Washington Redskins 27

Sadly, it was a loss (to the #3 team in the NFL according to ESPN, no less), but there is a ton to be excited about this season, including:

• The Redskins are the only NFC East team to have scored more points than their opponents
• Turnover Margin: +2
• Redskins vs. Opponents total sack margin: +2 (6 to 4, with Ware and Williams across the line of scrimmage)
• Average opposing passes deflected per game: 8
• Average % of passes deflected by Skins' D: 16% (16/100 passes attempted)
• McNabb's QB rating: 93.6
• McNabb's Yards Per Attempt Rank Among QBs: 5th (8.53 YPA)
• Projected Total Yardage for McNabb: 4,776
• # of Redskin RBs/TEs/WRs with more than 40 yards of offense: 7
• # of Redskin RBs/TEs/WRs with more than 80 yards of offense: 4
• Average combined yardage per game by Cooley and Moss: 155 yards
• Solo tackles by Laron Landry: 21 (28 total)
• Josh Bidwell's average punt: 43.9 yds (Net: 40.0 yards)
• Devin Thomas' average kickoff return: 28.4 yards
• Average Fan Rating for Redskins' Games per NFL.com: 84.5
• Rank of Average Fan Rating for Redskins Games among entire NFL: 1
• Milliseconds I was worried about a line drive kickoff straight to Mike Sellers: 3
• Starting field position after Sellers' return: WAS 37

But as a counterweight to all that optimism, here are some scary facts and stats that highlight some glaring holes in this team:

• Rank of Redskins rushing yards per game: 31st (53.5 ypg)
• Number of TDs by a wide receiver: 0
• Average % of possession of football: 43.1% (56:04 to 73:52)
• Average additional offensive plays run by opponents vs. offensive plays by Redskins: 19 (Total Skins' plays: 114, Total Opponents' Plays: 152)
• Number of Iced Redskins Kickers: 1
• Individual Redskins who each had opportunities to win the game on Sunday and did not make the play:  Joey Galloway, Fred Davis, Chris Horton, Graham Gano, Reed Doughty
• Redskins Points Scored By Quarter: FIRST: 9 pts - SECOND: 21 pts - THIRD: 7 pts - FOURTH: 3 pts
• % of Redskins Points Scored in First Half: 75%