Friday, December 11, 2009

Week 14 Diagnostics

Talking to Micah last night, I realized the Skins have reached an important moment, and that the performance of the team in the next three weeks will have significant consequences for the future of this franchise.
I spy three major areas of pivotal interest for the future of the team, each in substantial flux at the moment: the 2010 draft, retention of current players and staff, and free agency (both losing and acquiring players).

The 2010 Draft
Micah's perspective as I remember it was that if the next three games are nail-biters, with the offense continuing to impress, he'd prefer that we lose each for the sake of the draft position. If the Skins win out and go 7-9, they'd be looking at something like the 15th overall pick. On the other hand, lose out, go 3-13 and the Skins might draw as high as #3 (behind Tampa and St. Louis). We both agreed that the best player for the Skins next year is OT Russell Okung, who tends to come off mock drafts at #5 or #6. Obviously, getting a draft position where we can snag Okung would be great. Further, many teams were real bad this year, having identified glaring weaknesses that a top 5 pick might alleviate, so it may be wonderful trade bait to hold such a coveted draft position. But then again Snyderatto might get mesmerized by the flaxen hair of one Notre Dame QB (shiny thing! me wanty! how come NFL bust again?!?), and blow a hole in the engine room of the ship with the draft. On balance, I'd say a high draft position carries a significant risk just because of the poor judgment of the individuals in charge of making the decision. But if we had a decent GM...
Another position I'd like to team to go after is RB - maybe with a fourth or fifth rounder. Ideally short and fast to complement our other backs.

Retention of Current Players and Staff
The most critical element of the puzzle, by far. Changing the culture and institutional purpose of this organization is task numbers 1, 2, and 3. Let's start off the field.
  • Cerrato must go, preferably far outside of earshot of the Danny. I hear Venezuela is nice this time of forever and ever.
  • Zorn must go. Not because he's a bad coach necessarily, but because you can't castrate a man publicly and then ask his players to believe that he has the authority and respect necessary to run this team. Hopefully, a few million dollars severance should cover pride restoration surgery.
  • Coordinators out. OCs can't be "good enough." They have to be called geniuses on the TV screen in this league, and Sherm Smith hasn't been called that. Blache, out. The defense has weakened this year, though he's got some great talent. Again, not a bad DC, but not a genius either. Also, he never made Carlos Rogers catch balls in practice for 8 hours straight, which seems a bit of an oversight.
  • Sherm Lewis - I have no fricking clue what to do with this guy. Maybe put him in a hooded cloak, set up a dry ice and blacklight rig at Redskins Park, and have the coach "consult the oracle" every once in a while?
  • The owner. Just stay out of it. Seriously, leave town and go count your money. Fix Six Flags, whatever. Just stop messing us up.
On the field
  • Jason Campbell - The 64 million dollar question. I really like the guy's play, but I am pilloried almost every time I say this in DC. He also got emasculated by the head office this year, but maybe they realized they dodged a bullet named Cutler, and want to keep him on as the man for a while. Maybe he's through with these jokers - I couldn't blame him if he was. But the indisputable fact (fine, my opinion) is that Campbell is the #1 QB in free agency in 2010, and I am not excited about the draft class (though generally I'm skeptical of college QBs, some of who play well in the league). If we draft a QB, please let him be from the B-Roth/J-Flac mold, and not from a top program. I'd prefer to avoid the hype as much as possible. Regardless of what happens, Campbell will have a a very good 2010 - prolly around the 10th best QB in the league in my estimate. Grudgingly, I have to admit that he'd probably have a slightly better year for another team than for the burgundy and gold.
  • Portis - All credit to Micah for this idea: when training camp starts, the new head coach publicly punks CP at practice, telling him he needs to practice as hard as everyone else, and jumping down his throat for a small transgression. If CP acts like a teenager and starts pouting, talking smack in the locker room or runs and tells Snyder, cut him loose. If he says yes coach, I'll do what you ask because I want us to win, he stays.
  • Sleepy Davis/Chris Cooley - Again, credit to Micah: they've each shown that they can be an offensive force on the team. Cooley brings charisma, unifies the fans, doesn't make mistakes, and doesn't much care for getting tackled on first contact. Davis is a freak of nature, and if his maturity issues don't resurface, could be dominant for a decade. The idea of two-TE sets with both of these guys performing as they are is nasty, and could forge a new-look offense for the NFL - something the Skins haven't shown since about 1983. On the other hand, trading one of them now could net some serious value, without diminishing our ability to utilize the TE. And ultimately, there's only one ball, even if both are on the field at the same time. Maybe I'm greedy, but I come out on the two-TE side of this one, just cause man it is sooooo sweet in my dreams (which weirdly resemble Tecmo Bowl).
  • Rogers and Landry - I feel like they are my own children, but they like to start fires. How can I both love and loathe these two so much? In some way Landry has channeled #21 with his big hits, so trading him would be like losing one more part of Sean. I just wish he could channel Sean's solid tackling and lack of arrogance. Sometimes I'll notice that the top opposing WR isn't doing much, and I'll realize that he's wearing his C-Rod blanket, and I feel happy. Other times I feel sad because he drops more balls than the adolescent male population of Los Angeles county. I guess keep em.
  • Receivers - keep em all.
  • D-line - keep em all.
  • Linebackers - keep em all.
  • Doughty, Horton, Levi Jones, Rabach - keep em.
  • Backup RBs - TBD.
Free Agency
Needs:
  • O-Line - no aging megastars, though we should draft a top prospect - just solid get the job done types, and plenty of them
  • LB - coverage specialist with maybe 4-5 years in the league - would love to yoink a Steeler here
  • Free Safety - so Laron can move to strong safety, we should grab a sure-tackling coverage guy that never got featured in "Jacked Up"
Trade Bait:
  • Sleepy Davis or Chris Cooley - see above
  • Clinton Portis - see above
  • ARE - with great TEs and Devin Thomas learning the slot a bit, we might be able to get some value here
  • Colt Brennan - strategy should be to give him highlight reel moments in preseason and then trade him to the Rams or the Raiders for their best O-lineman
That's my view from week 14. Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.

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