First, before we turn to this week's matchup, let's take a minute to recap last year's debacle against the Giants. I do this not out of cruelty, but to set a low bar by which to measure this week's effort.
In the 2008 opener, the Redskins looked awful, like a D-II school with a 4-year old football program invited to play in the Swamp for the Gators' opener.
After the Giants scored on an 11 play drive to open the game, here is Washington's first series:
1st and 10 - Campbell sacked for minus 8 yards.
2nd and 18 - Portis up the middle for 3 yards.
3rd and 15 - False start on Heyer for minus 5 yards.
3rd and 20 - Portis up the middle for 5 yards.
4th and 15 - Brooks punts
34 yards.
Ouch.
The second series wasn't a whole lot better.
1st and 10 - False start on Randle El (?!?) for minus 5 yards.
1st and 15 - Incomplete pass.
2nd and 15 - Portis right guard for 3 yards.
3rd and 12 - Incomplete pass.
4th and 12 - Brooks punts 42 yards, but draws a roughing the kicker penalty! WASHINGTON FIRST DOWN!!!!
1st and 10 - Portis right tackle for 4 yards.
2nd and 6 - Betts left guard for nothing at all.
3rd and 6 - Incomplete pass.
4th and 6 - Brooks punts
27 yards.
(Wouldn't it have been smarter to just have Jason throw a 30-yard interception?)
That my friends is a brutal way to welcome the season. Also, and I can't even bring myself to describe this moment, but I'll just say Brandon Jacobs, Laron Landry and you know what I'm talking about. Shudder.
In the first two series last year, Campbell went 0-3 and took a sack, Portis averaged 3.75 yards on four carries, the punts could have been strongman boulder throws, the team had a 14% false start rate, and the only first down came from a penalty. These are stats to beat my friends, and I will consider myself thoroughly disappointed if the Skins can't outshine that performance in the first two possessions of 2009.
But was there a bright spot in 2008? Perhaps. At four minutes into the 2nd Quarter, the Giants went up 16-0 on a field goal. They didn't score for the next 41 minutes.
Presuming our defense isn't performing an elaborate version of punk'd on all of DC, and they go out there like, "Sike, thought you had a top 5 defense, didn't you?," this game will be about the Skins' offense, namely whether they can shake off the anemic 2008 offense monkey. The Giants' run game is strong, and should put up at least 10 points, and likely 14. But the Giants' passing game is very shaky and ripe for exploitation, even a pick-6 if the stars align (those being the constellation formed by Haynesworth, Orakpo, Fletcher, Hall and Landry).
The scary Giants D-line means that Campbell needs to get rid of the ball quickly. I like the shotgun formation, 2 TE sets, Portis cutblocks, and quick dumps over the middle to solve the blue wave. Kelly better have multiple catches.
Skins definitely win if:- Giants are limited to less than 100 yards rushing
- Skins have a +2 turnover margin
Skins probably win if:- Giants can't set up their passing game and Eli throws for less than 150 yards
- Skins put up 22 or more points
Skins probably lose if:- Giants rush for >160 yards
- Giants pass for >200 yards
- Skins score fewer than 20 points
Giants definitely win if:- Chris Samuels or Randy Thomas gets injured
- Gooseeggs appear next to the reception totals for Kelly, Thomas and Mitchell
- Eli forgets that he's Eli for the afternoon, and plays like Mr. "Eat Salad" of Indianapolis
Also, let's hope to start hearing this man's name about a dozen times each Sunday.
Update: Matt Mosely just wrote that
Terrell Thomas will start at corner for an injured Aaron Ross, and will be covering Malcolm Kelly. Kelly has 28 pounds and four inches on Thomas. This match-up is tied with Samuels/Umenyiora for the top spot to watch.
