Week 4 Game Plan: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rebound Dinner Party
So you've got company coming over this weekend, and you want to overcome the embarassment of a less than successful gala last time around? Have no fear - below you'll find everything you need to delight your guests and get your mojo back.

But first, you've got to prepare for your guests - what do your guests like to do?

Tampa Bay is averaging 210 yards passing and 86 yards rushing per game. Those are manageable numbers for any host, but the scary number is 13.7. That's how many points the Bucs are scoring per game, including just getting blanked by the Giants. It's not a scary number by itself, but as in all things football, points are relative. And the Redskins are sporting a 13.3 points per game average.

On the other side of the ball, the Skins are allowing an average of 16.3 points on them, while the hapless Bucs are giving up a 30 spot on average, on 432 yards surrendered every sixty minutes. The most important stat for the Skins offense is the Bucs' 187 rushing yards allowed per game.

Which leads me to my recipe for success in Week 4.

Buc Thrashing Stew (serves 92,000)
Ingredients

• 22 Rushes of Clinton Portis
• 8 Rushes of Ladell Betts
• 6 Rushes of Marcus Mason (you can substitute Anthony Alridge rushes here)
• 2 Endaround Second Half Rushes by a Speedy Wide Receiver (be sure not to throw this in too early -it'll spoil the dish!)
• 20 Short Passes (mostly over the middle) from Jason Campbell
• 4 Ten-second NFL Films slow-mo spirals from Jason Campbell
• Add a dash of Suisham to taste

Mix ingredients liberally, and don't be afraid to toss in your favorite spices! This recipe doesn't require precision, just a basic understanding of your ingredients. The dish should look something like this:

Finding My Chi...

watching some locker room interviews got me bummed out and made me realize some things. mainly, regardless of the way our team is acting, the season is not over.
the steelers are 1-2. no one is freaking out abou them and more importantly, they are not freaking out internally. but they lost to the bengals. the bengals who were 4-11 last year. i have a feeling a lot of people would argue that the bengals are a different team this year and i would agree.
so, is detroit the same team as last year? at least 7 of their starting 22 are brand new. new coach. new star college qb. their previous 2 losses were to the unbeaten saints (lions put up 27 on them) and the unbeaten vikings (lions led 10-0 at halftime). they beat us at their home field and they beat us by 4. one loss. we need to keep that in perspective. im not saying that we dont have problems, im saying that the tennessee titans arent packing up their locker room at 0-3 because its only week 3 for them.
we may lose 10 more and then i will bitch and moan but right now, our team needs to realize how much talent we have, how many positives there have been, and put it all together and beat the bucs. then we'll worry about the panthers and so on.
lets beat dallas this year...twice

Who Holds Onto the Ball Too Long?

Who do ya think?

According to Fanhouse, no QB has held onto the ball longer during his sacks than Campbell, averaging an astonishing 3.66 seconds. The average NFL sack occurs at 2.7 seconds after the snap, therefore Campbell needs to get the ball out earlier.

To put Campbell's almost 4 seconds into perspective, Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger have been sacked 9 times, at an average time of 2.5 seconds.

More credit needs to be given to the O-line that despite Campbell being one of the slowest to get the ball out, he has only been sacked 3 times. And more credit needs to be given to Campbell that he is averaging almost 10 yards per carry on his runs when he has taken off.

Week 2 Mega Stats Review

Let's rank all parts of the Redskins so far:

Offensive Line

Run-Blocking

ALY = 3.48, 23

Power Success = 75%, 12

Stuffed = 16%, 16

Pass-Blocking

Adjusted Sack Rate = 6.9%, 25

Current Grade = C-

Running Back

Clinton Portis

DYAR =-7, 32

DVOA=-13.8%, 31

Success Rate=34%, 36

Current Grade = C-

(Portis would get a D, but the O-Line is bad too. Ladell Betts looked even worse)

Quarterback

Jason Campbell

DYAR=121, 14

DVOA=17.8%, 14

1 TD, 1 FL, 1 INT, 68.9 C%

4 rush, 48 yds.

Considering the O-Line, the lack of support from the RB position, and the lack of production from WR1 and WR2, Jason Campbell has had an excellent year so far. Lack of TDs is the only thing holding him back from A.

Current Grade = B+

Wide Receivers - Tight Ends

Antwaan Randle El

DYAR=38, 17

15 rec, 137 yds

Catch rate=73%

Malcolm Kelly

DYAR=6, 45

Catch Rate=71%

Chris Cooley

DYAR=36, 8

Opposing teams are intentionally concentrating on stopping the only deep threat, Santana Moss, who is having a terrible start to the year and his lowest 2-game catch total in years. This is not necessaruly a bad thing as it has allowed Randle El to thrive in the slot, Cooley to continue his Top 10 production, and allowed Malcolm Kelly to get in the flow of the offense.

Current Grade = B-

Defensive Line

Run-Blocking

ALY=3.82, RB Yds=4.74, Power Success=0%, 6

10+ Rank, 27, Stuffed=30%, 4

Pass-Blocking

2 Sacks, Adj Sack rate=4.2%, 23

Current Grade = B-

Doing a great job against the run but they need to get more pressure on the QB.

Linebackers

The Redskins are 9th in the NFL at stopping the run, and 27th at preventing runs of 10+ yards. Not a good sign of the ability of the LBs to stop RBs at the second level beyond the line. Part of this is also on the secondary, but Orakpo's lack of tackles is also worrisome. So far the experiment is questionable. Huge credit goes to London Fletcher for doing his best to pick up the slack.

Current Grade = C

Secondary

Pass Defense=13.3%, 17

There were rumblings that the 2009 Redskins defense could be one of its best ever. Not with a secondary playing like this. Loaded with blue chip players at their peak NFL age: LaRon Landry (Rd 1, age 24), Carlos Rogers (Rd 1, age 28), DeAngelo Hall (Rd 1, age 25), Fred Smoot (Rd 2, age 30), plus overachieving playmaker Chris Horton, and one of the best off-the-bench safety in the NFL, Reed Doughty on paper this could be the #1 secondary in the NFL. They aren't even average, and were exposed repeatedly by a Giants passing offense featuring a bunch of no-name WRs.

Current Grade = C-

Overall Team Grade = C

The Redskins are perfectly average. The O-Line is in shambles and as currently constructed look to be about a D going forward. The good news is that they have a RB good enough to carry the ground game to a C despite the O-Line. The passing offense continues to grow and could reach B. The D-line is excellent. The LBs can reach all the way to an A/B grade but that requires some huge progress by Orakpo. The secondary is one of the most talented units in the league but is seriously underachieving. The upside is there.

Week 2 O-Line Stats Review

O-Line Baby!

Average Line Yards - Redskins

Entire Line: 3.48... 23rd in the NFL, i.e. bad, i.e. C-/D+

(and that was with Thomas, just you wait)

Let's break out ALYs by sector:

Left End, 3.00. Yikes. Big drop-off from last year.

Left Tackle, 4.45. Not bad, about NFL average. Sup Chris Samuels and Dockery!

Mid/Guard, 3.32. Below average

Right Tackle, 3.16. Awful. This side of the line has been rush blocking terribly.

Right End, 2.13. SO BAD.

So to recap, left side of the line is below average except for runs at the LT and they are barely average. Middle runs below average too. The right side of the line is pure SUCK. And again, that was WITH Thomas.

Want to guess how often the Redskins run to the right side? 14%, i.e. just enough to pretend like they aren't petrified that every rush to the right side is like having the QB kneel down.

The right side of the line is now an undrafted FA, Heyer, and Rinehart, a 3rd round pick 2 years ago. Things are looking really, really grim on the O-line. Pray for a miracle Samuels injury-free year....

Week 3 Game Plan: Detroit Lions

Strategy: Win the game (by any means necessary).

While last week's expectations led to frustration when the Skins couldn't explode offensively over a weak foe, I think the fans are just looking for a W this week. I know I am.

Gravy Items
(Things that would be great to see in addition to a W - not that I'm picky)

• The emergence of an offensive personality and a rhythm that spans return to touchdown
• Brian Orakpo makes a couple of big plays
• Santana and Portis each have a great game
• No horrible missed tackles - run-of-the-mill missed tackles, okay, but just none of the tear-out-your-eyes variety
• A coherent, stable O-line
• "Hip-Hip-HOORAY!!!"

Gravy with extra syrup item

Must Watch Viewing

NFL.com mic'd up Campbell and Zorn during the Rams game.
Watch here.
It's incredibly insightful into both men's characters and what was actually happening during the game. Also, check out the weird moment at 3:30. Just watch.

Victories vs. Respect

The St. Louis game will no doubt be most remembered for the fact that the fans at FedEx, frustrated with the red zone letdowns, booed their team when the Redskins went into the victory formation to kneel out the game. Not everyone booed, but most felt a kind of dejection that didn't match the fact that the Redskins had a victory this Sunday. I think what prompted the booing was the sense that the performance against the Rams was so nakedly mediocre that it killed off a sense of hope that the Redskins could be an exciting Cinderella team that surprised the league this year.

Essentially, we beat the Rams, but we failed to beat the expectations of the power rankings and the columnists who don't see this year's team as a contender. For fans like me, the Redskins need to be beating not only the squad across the sideline, but the doubters in the media booths and television studios. Making the talking heads mention the Redskins when they discuss the NFC East makes a win a real victory, and the Skins failed to accomplish that this week. If this were week 14, and the Redskins already had 7 or 8 wins, there wouldn't be booing because the win would be more important than earning the league's respect. But it's too early in the season for a win that doesn't generate any more respect to feel all that good. Last year's improbable road victories against the Eagles and Cowboys, and home win against the Saints were more than just Ws - they were performances that demanded respect.

The road ahead does not look promising for the Skins - the next five games could each result in victories without added respect. A loss in any of those games will be a double whammy.

There were many positive developments in this game but the fans were left without a signature moment of explosive success, one that we could carry around with us in our imaginations in the weeks ahead, thinking that Dallas better watch out, because we'll drop that bomb on them any time we please. Instead, our heads are filled with the image of Clinton Portis overthrowing a fade route to Chris Cooley in the endzone.

Week 2 Game Plan: St. Louis Rams

Obviously a loss would be catastrophic, and on any given Sunday, etc., but seriously, the Redskins will win this football game. If the running game collapses (Samuels sits out, Portis tweaks a hammy, and Rams D-Line comes strong), and the passing game deflates (Moss flips out again, Otogwe snags two INTs and forces a fumble, and Randle El throws a pick), and special teams gives up a runback and fumbles a punt return, the defense could still win this game for the Skins.

I think that the chance of the first three fails all happening is very low, so I'll be watching this game primarily to learn more about the Redskins' persona in 2009. When a substantially weaker foe enables Zorn to dictate the style and pace of the game, what does he call? Air Coryell plus slant routes and 40 passing plays? 48 carries right into the Rams' teeth? Go for it on 4th and 1 from the Rams' 45 in the second quarter or punt? Watching the Skins play a game where they should have options will be enlightening, and I really hope I don't come away thinking that Zorn is coaching not-to-lose rather than to win. I have to say that in my memory of the 2008 victories, I don't recall having the sense that the Redskins were firmly in control of any of those games - often ahead but not really forcing the other side to play their game.

It's important that whatever the game plan, the Skins develop an offensive rhythm. I'd like to see 3 or 4 consecutive pass plays in the first half, and a smashmouth run series. Let's see what happens when the Skins stretch their legs...

My aspirational image for Week 2

Great Article

Boswell today in the Post.

6 active WRS?

Some interesting pre-game roster decisions in this post from RI.

I was really surprised Montgomery was not active, simply because of how
much I expected Haynesworth to be on the field Sunday. The coaching staff chose
to have rookie wide receiver Marko Mitchell active in Week 1, and it came down
to a decision between Mitchell and Montgomery, Coach Jim Zorn said.

"That was an issue for me," he said. "The issue for me was really going to be between Montgomery and Marko Mitchell. I had some four wide receiver stuff, and I didn't
want a receiver to go down and take us out of that. I left Marko up thinking
that we could put Phil Daniels inside if we got into trouble."

So the Redskins had 6 receivers active for the game:
Moss (1)
Randle El (slot)
Kelly (2)
Thomas
Kelly
Mitchell

What, is Jason Campbell about to turn into Drew Brees?

Apparently Jim Zorn feels that an explosive passing offense is just around the corner. During the game the Redskins ran only one play for Thomas, a reverse, and did not use Mitchell even though their first red zone visit was a perfect opportunity.

Next week, just load up another D lineman or O lineman.

Week 1 Thoughts + Stat of the Day

Busy week for me, so won't be posting much. I will be a force in the weeks to come. As the resident stats guy I offer only 1 stat that that pretty much explains the loss.

Here was the results of the first 6 times that the Giants were faced with a 3rd and long.

7 yd pass, 1st down
25 yd pass, 1st down
17 yd pass, 1st down
7 yd pass, 1st down
10 yd pass, 1st down
30 yd pass, Touchdown

The d-line and linebackers played their guts out (right Gibbs?), but when responsibility was turned over to the secondary they played terribly. 6 consecutive conversions on 3rd and long?

Props to the rest of the defensive front that no matter how poorly the secondary played, and no matter how many times the offense 3 and outed to put the defense right back in, they never gave up and continued to sustain excellence to the closing whistle.

1st week MVP - Defensive Line + Linebackers

At one point during the game London Fletcher had 15 tackles. So much for him being on the downside of his career.