STATSBOMB: Week Three - Washington Redskins 16, St. Louis Rams 30

Ugh. As they did last year against the Lions, the Redskins lost a Week 3 matchup against the worst team in the NFL in truly hope-killing fashion. Aside from the second quarter and the first drive in the third, Washington played horribly, committing stupid penalty after stupid penalty, handing three and outs to the unimpressive Rams defense and generally looking reminiscent of last year's team.

Here is my statistical indictment of the team:

• % of Time of Possession Vs. the Rams: 41.9%
• % of Time of Possession (Season): 42.8%
• Average Additional Plays Run By Opponents Vs. Plays Run By Redskins: 21
• % of Second Half Time of Possession Vs. the Rams: 31.7%
• # of Redskins Second Half Drives Longer than 3 Minutes: 0
• # Shorter than 1 Minute: 2
• Average Redskins Plays Per Drive Against Rams: 4.0
• Average Rams Plays Per Drive Against Redskins: 7.2
• Ratio of Plays Run by Rams to Plays Run by Redskins: 3:2 (75 by Rams to 50 by Skins)
• Rushing Yardage Gained by Redskins in First Half: 115 yards
• Rushing Yardage Gained by Redskins in Second Half: 1 yard
• Time of Final Redskins Rushing Play that Gained Yardage: 13:53 left in the Third Quarter
• # of Rushing Plays Called Afterward, Each Netting Negative Yards: 3
• # of St. Louis Rushing Plays Following Final Positive Redskins Rush: 23
• # That Were Stopped For Negative Yardage: 0
• # of People Who Would Describe Clinton Portis as "Sure-Footed:" 0
• Average Additional Penalties Committed by Redskins With Each Successive Week: 2
• Third Down Conversion % Allowed by Rams in Weeks 1 & 2: 40%
• % Third Downs Converted by Redskins: 10%
• # of Games Where Redskins Have Outgained Their Opponent in 2010: 0
• % of Redskins Points Scored in the 4th Quarter: 5.4% (3/56)
• Ratio of Yards Gained By Stephen Jackson in Weeks 1 & 2 to Total Rams Yards: 212/535 (39.6%)
• % of Rams Yards Gained by Jackson Against the Redskins: 17.5% (64/365)
• Last Time the Rams Scored 30 or More Points: October 19, 2008

A Few Sips of Kool-Aid:

• Average Devin Thomas Kick Return in 2010: 28.4 Yards (11 kick returns for 312 yards)
• Sub 50-YD Field Goals Missed by Gano: 0
• Rams Plays Following a First Down at the Washington 1 Yard Line: 6
• Number of Rams Points Scored on that Drive: 0

Skins Beat Cowboys: The Celebration!

Just thought I'd post this video of the celebration at FedEx Field a couple of minutes after the Skins beat the Cowboys on September 12, 2010.

STATSBOMB: Week Two - Houston Texans 30, Washington Redskins 27

Sadly, it was a loss (to the #3 team in the NFL according to ESPN, no less), but there is a ton to be excited about this season, including:

• The Redskins are the only NFC East team to have scored more points than their opponents
• Turnover Margin: +2
• Redskins vs. Opponents total sack margin: +2 (6 to 4, with Ware and Williams across the line of scrimmage)
• Average opposing passes deflected per game: 8
• Average % of passes deflected by Skins' D: 16% (16/100 passes attempted)
• McNabb's QB rating: 93.6
• McNabb's Yards Per Attempt Rank Among QBs: 5th (8.53 YPA)
• Projected Total Yardage for McNabb: 4,776
• # of Redskin RBs/TEs/WRs with more than 40 yards of offense: 7
• # of Redskin RBs/TEs/WRs with more than 80 yards of offense: 4
• Average combined yardage per game by Cooley and Moss: 155 yards
• Solo tackles by Laron Landry: 21 (28 total)
• Josh Bidwell's average punt: 43.9 yds (Net: 40.0 yards)
• Devin Thomas' average kickoff return: 28.4 yards
• Average Fan Rating for Redskins' Games per NFL.com: 84.5
• Rank of Average Fan Rating for Redskins Games among entire NFL: 1
• Milliseconds I was worried about a line drive kickoff straight to Mike Sellers: 3
• Starting field position after Sellers' return: WAS 37

But as a counterweight to all that optimism, here are some scary facts and stats that highlight some glaring holes in this team:

• Rank of Redskins rushing yards per game: 31st (53.5 ypg)
• Number of TDs by a wide receiver: 0
• Average % of possession of football: 43.1% (56:04 to 73:52)
• Average additional offensive plays run by opponents vs. offensive plays by Redskins: 19 (Total Skins' plays: 114, Total Opponents' Plays: 152)
• Number of Iced Redskins Kickers: 1
• Individual Redskins who each had opportunities to win the game on Sunday and did not make the play:  Joey Galloway, Fred Davis, Chris Horton, Graham Gano, Reed Doughty
• Redskins Points Scored By Quarter: FIRST: 9 pts - SECOND: 21 pts - THIRD: 7 pts - FOURTH: 3 pts
• % of Redskins Points Scored in First Half: 75% 

STATSBOMB: Week One - Dallas Cowboys 7, Washington Redskins 13

Welcome to the inaugural STATSBOMB post on We Want Dallas - this first edition is actually just copied from an email I wrote, but due to positive reception, I'll be posting one of these after each game this season.

Number of Redskins wins after Week One

My goal with STATSBOMB is to put together a collection of meaningful stats and facts from both the most recent game and from emerging season-long trends. I intend to pull and create stats that interest me and tell an interesting story about the game and the team, but I won't be tracking stats just for the sake of stats.

So here goes - STATSBOMB Week One 

• Statline for Landry: 17 tackles (13 solo), 1 pass deflected 
• Pass Deflections by the Redskins D: 8 
• Percentage of Tony Romo passes deflected: 17% 
• Redskins average kickoff return: 38 yards (both Devin Thomas) 
• Number of field goals missed by Graham Gano: 0 
• Number of holding penalties called on an O-lineman blocking Brian Orakpo: 3

Number of teams wearing gold pants last night: 1
Ratio of gold-pants-wearing to wins: 1:1

• Games at FedEx that I've been to where the crowd was as loud: 0 
• Number of plays (offense or defense) for which Micah and I were sitting down: 0 
• Minimum types of meat eaten by Micah and I yesterday: 8 
• The perfect amount of beer for an 8 hour tailgate for two people: One case + 2 beers 
• Number of high fives: 8.467 million (approx.) 
• Time spent at FedEx: approximately 14 hours (arrival: 11:45 AM, departure 1:45AM

The 2010 Kool-Aid is Delicious

Ah yes, the familiar taste of August Kool-Aid when you're a Redskins fan, hoping against hope that this year is different - that this year the team will be what you want it to be. For DC, it's as perennial a pleasure as beach vacations and Restaurant Week. And with one preseason game in the books, I can say that this year's batch of Kool-Aid is f*cking delicious.

Granted, the game was against the lowly Buffalo Bills, who were still able to march down the field and put up 3 points against the Skins' starters, but this post is not about the warning signs - it's about 42 points!!!

In the spirit of the season, I'll leave off the realism and focus on the positive and hopeful.


To lead off, the stadium experience is a huge improvement from the 2009 debacle - the video boards are amazing, almost too amazing. I sometimes found it easier on the eyes to watch plays at the other end of the field on the epicly bright monitors, rather than the live action on the grass. I felt like a bit of a sellout doing so, but I can't complain about the extra details you pick up on when Brian Orakpo is 35 feet tall. The fan experience was markedly improved, with more cheering and Bills' false starts flowing therefrom than I could remember from last year. Maybe my new and improved seats this year have given me burgundy-colored glasses, but I really felt like the whole crowd was in a better mood due to the video boards and the knowledge that Vinny Cerrato wasn't hovering around waiting to screw up everyone's fun like a field trip chaperon who hates his life.


Next, the offense looks great. We now have a WR controversy! In a good way! With Portis, Johnson and Torain, there are going to be three very good running backs on this team, and we'll have to let a couple decent RBs go. The O-Line protection was fantastic and probably the greatest reason for the positive vibes. It's hard to get excited about an offense when the QB is marked for death on every down, but on Friday, McNabb and Grossman got to do what was unthinkable last year - execute the plays as designed. While standing up. Oh, and Grossman - wow. Wherever that confidence came from I don't know, but it quieted my anxiety about a McNabb injury a fair bit. Cooley reminded us that he was the man, Davis remained in excellent form and even Devin Thomas looked at times like he might be a dependable receiver.

On defense, the greatest news was that Albert is getting to like this system. Conditioninggate is over, and Shanahan's gamble paid off in a big way. Coach made Big Al his bitch in front of the team and the city. For his part, Haynesworth thanked coach for the lesson by easily absorbing and at times pushing through double teams (admittedly second-stringers, but still) at the line. D Hall made a play after the defensive front put Buffalo's QB in a panic, and while patchy in run stopping, the LBs covered and tackled well.

On special teams, Brandon Banks returned a punt more than 6 yards, did the John Wall dance on television, and there was much rejoicing among the people.


It's so easy to root for a guy who would have to look up to Snooki - and did you see him burn past the punter before he even realized that he was going to have to try to make a play? That is something special, and while I know it's preseason, Banks needs to make the team just to have a "secret weapon" in the minds of the fans - we're going to get loud every time that guy gets the ball, and he's earned three free fumbles before I'll change my tune.

I now have hopes that this team will be able to win a couple games this year by comfortable margins, just by having the system, personnel and confidence to execute a handful of plays in a row and get a rhythm going. Last year, I remember this feeling that no matter the play before, each down was a chance for things to go horribly wrong, or to simply be the start of an ineffectual drift into the loss of possession. This year, kicking back with a tall glass of the red stuff, I'm not afraid anymore. Drink up me hearties, yo ho.

Cerrato Resigns!!!

Week 14 Diagnostics

Talking to Micah last night, I realized the Skins have reached an important moment, and that the performance of the team in the next three weeks will have significant consequences for the future of this franchise.
I spy three major areas of pivotal interest for the future of the team, each in substantial flux at the moment: the 2010 draft, retention of current players and staff, and free agency (both losing and acquiring players).

The 2010 Draft
Micah's perspective as I remember it was that if the next three games are nail-biters, with the offense continuing to impress, he'd prefer that we lose each for the sake of the draft position. If the Skins win out and go 7-9, they'd be looking at something like the 15th overall pick. On the other hand, lose out, go 3-13 and the Skins might draw as high as #3 (behind Tampa and St. Louis). We both agreed that the best player for the Skins next year is OT Russell Okung, who tends to come off mock drafts at #5 or #6. Obviously, getting a draft position where we can snag Okung would be great. Further, many teams were real bad this year, having identified glaring weaknesses that a top 5 pick might alleviate, so it may be wonderful trade bait to hold such a coveted draft position. But then again Snyderatto might get mesmerized by the flaxen hair of one Notre Dame QB (shiny thing! me wanty! how come NFL bust again?!?), and blow a hole in the engine room of the ship with the draft. On balance, I'd say a high draft position carries a significant risk just because of the poor judgment of the individuals in charge of making the decision. But if we had a decent GM...
Another position I'd like to team to go after is RB - maybe with a fourth or fifth rounder. Ideally short and fast to complement our other backs.

Retention of Current Players and Staff
The most critical element of the puzzle, by far. Changing the culture and institutional purpose of this organization is task numbers 1, 2, and 3. Let's start off the field.

• Cerrato must go, preferably far outside of earshot of the Danny. I hear Venezuela is nice this time of forever and ever.
• Zorn must go. Not because he's a bad coach necessarily, but because you can't castrate a man publicly and then ask his players to believe that he has the authority and respect necessary to run this team. Hopefully, a few million dollars severance should cover pride restoration surgery.
• Coordinators out. OCs can't be "good enough." They have to be called geniuses on the TV screen in this league, and Sherm Smith hasn't been called that. Blache, out. The defense has weakened this year, though he's got some great talent. Again, not a bad DC, but not a genius either. Also, he never made Carlos Rogers catch balls in practice for 8 hours straight, which seems a bit of an oversight.
• Sherm Lewis - I have no fricking clue what to do with this guy. Maybe put him in a hooded cloak, set up a dry ice and blacklight rig at Redskins Park, and have the coach "consult the oracle" every once in a while?
• The owner. Just stay out of it. Seriously, leave town and go count your money. Fix Six Flags, whatever. Just stop messing us up.

On the field

• Jason Campbell - The 64 million dollar question. I really like the guy's play, but I am pilloried almost every time I say this in DC. He also got emasculated by the head office this year, but maybe they realized they dodged a bullet named Cutler, and want to keep him on as the man for a while. Maybe he's through with these jokers - I couldn't blame him if he was. But the indisputable fact (fine, my opinion) is that Campbell is the #1 QB in free agency in 2010, and I am not excited about the draft class (though generally I'm skeptical of college QBs, some of who play well in the league). If we draft a QB, please let him be from the B-Roth/J-Flac mold, and not from a top program. I'd prefer to avoid the hype as much as possible. Regardless of what happens, Campbell will have a a very good 2010 - prolly around the 10th best QB in the league in my estimate. Grudgingly, I have to admit that he'd probably have a slightly better year for another team than for the burgundy and gold.
• Portis - All credit to Micah for this idea: when training camp starts, the new head coach publicly punks CP at practice, telling him he needs to practice as hard as everyone else, and jumping down his throat for a small transgression. If CP acts like a teenager and starts pouting, talking smack in the locker room or runs and tells Snyder, cut him loose. If he says yes coach, I'll do what you ask because I want us to win, he stays.
• Sleepy Davis/Chris Cooley - Again, credit to Micah: they've each shown that they can be an offensive force on the team. Cooley brings charisma, unifies the fans, doesn't make mistakes, and doesn't much care for getting tackled on first contact. Davis is a freak of nature, and if his maturity issues don't resurface, could be dominant for a decade. The idea of two-TE sets with both of these guys performing as they are is nasty, and could forge a new-look offense for the NFL - something the Skins haven't shown since about 1983. On the other hand, trading one of them now could net some serious value, without diminishing our ability to utilize the TE. And ultimately, there's only one ball, even if both are on the field at the same time. Maybe I'm greedy, but I come out on the two-TE side of this one, just cause man it is sooooo sweet in my dreams (which weirdly resemble Tecmo Bowl).
• Rogers and Landry - I feel like they are my own children, but they like to start fires. How can I both love and loathe these two so much? In some way Landry has channeled #21 with his big hits, so trading him would be like losing one more part of Sean. I just wish he could channel Sean's solid tackling and lack of arrogance. Sometimes I'll notice that the top opposing WR isn't doing much, and I'll realize that he's wearing his C-Rod blanket, and I feel happy. Other times I feel sad because he drops more balls than the adolescent male population of Los Angeles county. I guess keep em.
• Receivers - keep em all.
• D-line - keep em all.
• Linebackers - keep em all.
• Doughty, Horton, Levi Jones, Rabach - keep em.
• Backup RBs - TBD.

Free Agency
Needs:

• O-Line - no aging megastars, though we should draft a top prospect - just solid get the job done types, and plenty of them
• LB - coverage specialist with maybe 4-5 years in the league - would love to yoink a Steeler here
• Free Safety - so Laron can move to strong safety, we should grab a sure-tackling coverage guy that never got featured in "Jacked Up"

Trade Bait:

• Sleepy Davis or Chris Cooley - see above
• Clinton Portis - see above
• ARE - with great TEs and Devin Thomas learning the slot a bit, we might be able to get some value here
• Colt Brennan - strategy should be to give him highlight reel moments in preseason and then trade him to the Rams or the Raiders for their best O-lineman

That's my view from week 14. Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.

Football is entertainment.

That maxim is easily forgotten in Washington, DC, where professional football seems to take on a much more serious role. Bad losses can feel as if the British just set fire to the White House again - that we've been beaten in war and have lost our way of life.

This Sunday's incredible loss to the Saints does not feel like that to me. I don't mean to downplay the emotions of those fans that do feel obliterated, but I would suggest that they re-read the title of this post and remember that the experience of watching that game was thrilling. I'd go so far as to say that I would prefer a couple of games like that, with the Redskins losing hard-fought close contests through a crazy series of edge-of-your-seat doozies, over a couple of blowout wins against dead fish opponents. Everyone's always going on about how a W is a W, and that's what matters, but I think we're all being brainwashed a bit. Would you rather relive the Rams' game (Skins over St. Louis 9-7) or the New Orleans game? Great games, those that seize your full attention and come down to the final play, are why we watch football. I know the Colts won a Super Bowl recently, but doesn't New York's win against New England feel much more impressive because the game was so great? So I say (for the next couple of years at least), screw Ws and bring on the entertainment!

This loss means nothing from a playoff point of view. It only matters for pride. I am very proud of the Redskins for reminding us of the thrills possible in this game, that comebacks and zany plays make the sport a drama in motion, and that there are some very fine athletes and coaches associated with this football team. I'll remember this one for a long time, and I expect that the non-Skins parts of the country may have had their spirits brightened by such a compelling game, and that they may be saying to their co-workers this Monday, "How bout that Skins-Saints game?"

What a game. Hail to the Redskins.

What's that tingle in my chest?

For the first time since the Santana TD against the Bucs, I'm feeling a bit of hope for this football team. The Broncos game was a solid effort, and with the exception of a horrendous secondary early on, quite watchable.

And dare I say it, the game against Dallas is winnable, if the defense follows Green Bay's example. Haynesworth, Orakpo and Carter will be key to getting pressure on Romo, and London will have to step up big against the run game.

If Wadd Phillips continues to call 70% pass plays, the Skins are solidly in this one. If he has any sense at all, he'll run the ball all game, in which case the Skins have little chance of a victory.

Regardless of what happens, it's nice to actually look forward to watching this game, rather than seeing it as some sort of Sunday death march.

I'm Walking on Sunshine

Just needed to record for posterity that the mood in my office and around town today is decidedly upbeat. People are responding to "How's it's going?" or "Did you have a good weekend?" with "The Redskins didn't lose."

Wow.

How bad is it?

It's so bad, some fans (one of whom may or may not be Will Forte) went to the trouble of preparing a sizeable banner that is basically counting on the Skins soiling the bed, so that they can show that they still love a team this awful. Note that the banner was deployed (and broadcast by a cruel ESPN team) at least as early as the second quarter.

You don't make this banner if you think the Skins have a chance to win, or even a chance to lose in a non-horrendous way. Is Redskins' fandom now reduced to the level of maternal affection for a dysfunctional bed-soiling kid? I don't remember signing up for this.

Also, how did they get that banner in?

Any more rooms in this house of horrors?

So Cooley's out, Mr. Fair Catch muffed a punt, JC's fumblitis flared up again, Rabach couldn't tell that his QB was in the shotgun, Fred Davis (with another "Davis Leap!") was so bad in pass protection that his catches paled in comparison, and Horton and Landry let DeSean get behind them.

Quite a list, and this is in addition to the injuries to Samuels and Thomas, the disappearance of Malcolm Kelly, D Hall's blown tackles, Portis' mediocrity, the Collins safety, and the existence of Stephon Heyer.

What more could go wrong? Is there any unexplored malady that has not yet befallen this team? Let's take a moment to try to imagine what hasn't yet happened so that watching it transpire won't be as painful.

Potential Lower Points in the Redskins' 2009 Season

• The entire stadium gets swine flu, as do 45% of television viewers
• London Fletcher' arms begin to sweat lubricants, thus making tackling impossible
• Misprinted jerseys - #30 "Laundry"
• A crazed Mike Sellers storms the Wizards court and re-injures Arenas
• Haynesworth is placed on the IR when he suffers a serious neck puncture after forgetting to take out his huge diamond earring before putting his helmet on
• Brian Orakpo accidentally eats Hunter Smith
• Zorn goes on a Christian Bale-esque swearing tirade in the post game conference (actually, come to think of it, this might be a high point)
• Suisham misses a field goal
• Zorn throws a challenge flag into Portis' eye
• Sherm Smith punches through the playcalling glass
• The dead rise from the field, as the stadium sits over an Indian burial ground, and they're mighty pissed about the combination of the franchise name and the miserable play
• A sacked Jason Campbell's lips can be clearly read to say: "I'm not getting up, cause I'm just going to get knocked right back down here" before he is physically carried off the field against his will
• Daniel Snyder remains the owner and Vinny Cerrato remains the GM
  

I think I'll be able to handle any of these events a bit better now that I've prepared myself.