Cerrato Resigns!!!

Week 14 Diagnostics

Talking to Micah last night, I realized the Skins have reached an important moment, and that the performance of the team in the next three weeks will have significant consequences for the future of this franchise.
I spy three major areas of pivotal interest for the future of the team, each in substantial flux at the moment: the 2010 draft, retention of current players and staff, and free agency (both losing and acquiring players).

The 2010 Draft
Micah's perspective as I remember it was that if the next three games are nail-biters, with the offense continuing to impress, he'd prefer that we lose each for the sake of the draft position. If the Skins win out and go 7-9, they'd be looking at something like the 15th overall pick. On the other hand, lose out, go 3-13 and the Skins might draw as high as #3 (behind Tampa and St. Louis). We both agreed that the best player for the Skins next year is OT Russell Okung, who tends to come off mock drafts at #5 or #6. Obviously, getting a draft position where we can snag Okung would be great. Further, many teams were real bad this year, having identified glaring weaknesses that a top 5 pick might alleviate, so it may be wonderful trade bait to hold such a coveted draft position. But then again Snyderatto might get mesmerized by the flaxen hair of one Notre Dame QB (shiny thing! me wanty! how come NFL bust again?!?), and blow a hole in the engine room of the ship with the draft. On balance, I'd say a high draft position carries a significant risk just because of the poor judgment of the individuals in charge of making the decision. But if we had a decent GM...
Another position I'd like to team to go after is RB - maybe with a fourth or fifth rounder. Ideally short and fast to complement our other backs.

Retention of Current Players and Staff
The most critical element of the puzzle, by far. Changing the culture and institutional purpose of this organization is task numbers 1, 2, and 3. Let's start off the field.

• Cerrato must go, preferably far outside of earshot of the Danny. I hear Venezuela is nice this time of forever and ever.
• Zorn must go. Not because he's a bad coach necessarily, but because you can't castrate a man publicly and then ask his players to believe that he has the authority and respect necessary to run this team. Hopefully, a few million dollars severance should cover pride restoration surgery.
• Coordinators out. OCs can't be "good enough." They have to be called geniuses on the TV screen in this league, and Sherm Smith hasn't been called that. Blache, out. The defense has weakened this year, though he's got some great talent. Again, not a bad DC, but not a genius either. Also, he never made Carlos Rogers catch balls in practice for 8 hours straight, which seems a bit of an oversight.
• Sherm Lewis - I have no fricking clue what to do with this guy. Maybe put him in a hooded cloak, set up a dry ice and blacklight rig at Redskins Park, and have the coach "consult the oracle" every once in a while?
• The owner. Just stay out of it. Seriously, leave town and go count your money. Fix Six Flags, whatever. Just stop messing us up.

On the field

• Jason Campbell - The 64 million dollar question. I really like the guy's play, but I am pilloried almost every time I say this in DC. He also got emasculated by the head office this year, but maybe they realized they dodged a bullet named Cutler, and want to keep him on as the man for a while. Maybe he's through with these jokers - I couldn't blame him if he was. But the indisputable fact (fine, my opinion) is that Campbell is the #1 QB in free agency in 2010, and I am not excited about the draft class (though generally I'm skeptical of college QBs, some of who play well in the league). If we draft a QB, please let him be from the B-Roth/J-Flac mold, and not from a top program. I'd prefer to avoid the hype as much as possible. Regardless of what happens, Campbell will have a a very good 2010 - prolly around the 10th best QB in the league in my estimate. Grudgingly, I have to admit that he'd probably have a slightly better year for another team than for the burgundy and gold.
• Portis - All credit to Micah for this idea: when training camp starts, the new head coach publicly punks CP at practice, telling him he needs to practice as hard as everyone else, and jumping down his throat for a small transgression. If CP acts like a teenager and starts pouting, talking smack in the locker room or runs and tells Snyder, cut him loose. If he says yes coach, I'll do what you ask because I want us to win, he stays.
• Sleepy Davis/Chris Cooley - Again, credit to Micah: they've each shown that they can be an offensive force on the team. Cooley brings charisma, unifies the fans, doesn't make mistakes, and doesn't much care for getting tackled on first contact. Davis is a freak of nature, and if his maturity issues don't resurface, could be dominant for a decade. The idea of two-TE sets with both of these guys performing as they are is nasty, and could forge a new-look offense for the NFL - something the Skins haven't shown since about 1983. On the other hand, trading one of them now could net some serious value, without diminishing our ability to utilize the TE. And ultimately, there's only one ball, even if both are on the field at the same time. Maybe I'm greedy, but I come out on the two-TE side of this one, just cause man it is sooooo sweet in my dreams (which weirdly resemble Tecmo Bowl).
• Rogers and Landry - I feel like they are my own children, but they like to start fires. How can I both love and loathe these two so much? In some way Landry has channeled #21 with his big hits, so trading him would be like losing one more part of Sean. I just wish he could channel Sean's solid tackling and lack of arrogance. Sometimes I'll notice that the top opposing WR isn't doing much, and I'll realize that he's wearing his C-Rod blanket, and I feel happy. Other times I feel sad because he drops more balls than the adolescent male population of Los Angeles county. I guess keep em.
• Receivers - keep em all.
• D-line - keep em all.
• Linebackers - keep em all.
• Doughty, Horton, Levi Jones, Rabach - keep em.
• Backup RBs - TBD.

Free Agency
Needs:

• O-Line - no aging megastars, though we should draft a top prospect - just solid get the job done types, and plenty of them
• LB - coverage specialist with maybe 4-5 years in the league - would love to yoink a Steeler here
• Free Safety - so Laron can move to strong safety, we should grab a sure-tackling coverage guy that never got featured in "Jacked Up"

Trade Bait:

• Sleepy Davis or Chris Cooley - see above
• Clinton Portis - see above
• ARE - with great TEs and Devin Thomas learning the slot a bit, we might be able to get some value here
• Colt Brennan - strategy should be to give him highlight reel moments in preseason and then trade him to the Rams or the Raiders for their best O-lineman

That's my view from week 14. Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.

Football is entertainment.

That maxim is easily forgotten in Washington, DC, where professional football seems to take on a much more serious role. Bad losses can feel as if the British just set fire to the White House again - that we've been beaten in war and have lost our way of life.

This Sunday's incredible loss to the Saints does not feel like that to me. I don't mean to downplay the emotions of those fans that do feel obliterated, but I would suggest that they re-read the title of this post and remember that the experience of watching that game was thrilling. I'd go so far as to say that I would prefer a couple of games like that, with the Redskins losing hard-fought close contests through a crazy series of edge-of-your-seat doozies, over a couple of blowout wins against dead fish opponents. Everyone's always going on about how a W is a W, and that's what matters, but I think we're all being brainwashed a bit. Would you rather relive the Rams' game (Skins over St. Louis 9-7) or the New Orleans game? Great games, those that seize your full attention and come down to the final play, are why we watch football. I know the Colts won a Super Bowl recently, but doesn't New York's win against New England feel much more impressive because the game was so great? So I say (for the next couple of years at least), screw Ws and bring on the entertainment!

This loss means nothing from a playoff point of view. It only matters for pride. I am very proud of the Redskins for reminding us of the thrills possible in this game, that comebacks and zany plays make the sport a drama in motion, and that there are some very fine athletes and coaches associated with this football team. I'll remember this one for a long time, and I expect that the non-Skins parts of the country may have had their spirits brightened by such a compelling game, and that they may be saying to their co-workers this Monday, "How bout that Skins-Saints game?"

What a game. Hail to the Redskins.

What's that tingle in my chest?

For the first time since the Santana TD against the Bucs, I'm feeling a bit of hope for this football team. The Broncos game was a solid effort, and with the exception of a horrendous secondary early on, quite watchable.

And dare I say it, the game against Dallas is winnable, if the defense follows Green Bay's example. Haynesworth, Orakpo and Carter will be key to getting pressure on Romo, and London will have to step up big against the run game.

If Wadd Phillips continues to call 70% pass plays, the Skins are solidly in this one. If he has any sense at all, he'll run the ball all game, in which case the Skins have little chance of a victory.

Regardless of what happens, it's nice to actually look forward to watching this game, rather than seeing it as some sort of Sunday death march.

I'm Walking on Sunshine

Just needed to record for posterity that the mood in my office and around town today is decidedly upbeat. People are responding to "How's it's going?" or "Did you have a good weekend?" with "The Redskins didn't lose."

Wow.

How bad is it?

It's so bad, some fans (one of whom may or may not be Will Forte) went to the trouble of preparing a sizeable banner that is basically counting on the Skins soiling the bed, so that they can show that they still love a team this awful. Note that the banner was deployed (and broadcast by a cruel ESPN team) at least as early as the second quarter.

You don't make this banner if you think the Skins have a chance to win, or even a chance to lose in a non-horrendous way. Is Redskins' fandom now reduced to the level of maternal affection for a dysfunctional bed-soiling kid? I don't remember signing up for this.

Also, how did they get that banner in?

Any more rooms in this house of horrors?

So Cooley's out, Mr. Fair Catch muffed a punt, JC's fumblitis flared up again, Rabach couldn't tell that his QB was in the shotgun, Fred Davis (with another "Davis Leap!") was so bad in pass protection that his catches paled in comparison, and Horton and Landry let DeSean get behind them.

Quite a list, and this is in addition to the injuries to Samuels and Thomas, the disappearance of Malcolm Kelly, D Hall's blown tackles, Portis' mediocrity, the Collins safety, and the existence of Stephon Heyer.

What more could go wrong? Is there any unexplored malady that has not yet befallen this team? Let's take a moment to try to imagine what hasn't yet happened so that watching it transpire won't be as painful.

Potential Lower Points in the Redskins' 2009 Season

• The entire stadium gets swine flu, as do 45% of television viewers
• London Fletcher' arms begin to sweat lubricants, thus making tackling impossible
• Misprinted jerseys - #30 "Laundry"
• A crazed Mike Sellers storms the Wizards court and re-injures Arenas
• Haynesworth is placed on the IR when he suffers a serious neck puncture after forgetting to take out his huge diamond earring before putting his helmet on
• Brian Orakpo accidentally eats Hunter Smith
• Zorn goes on a Christian Bale-esque swearing tirade in the post game conference (actually, come to think of it, this might be a high point)
• Suisham misses a field goal
• Zorn throws a challenge flag into Portis' eye
• Sherm Smith punches through the playcalling glass
• The dead rise from the field, as the stadium sits over an Indian burial ground, and they're mighty pissed about the combination of the franchise name and the miserable play
• A sacked Jason Campbell's lips can be clearly read to say: "I'm not getting up, cause I'm just going to get knocked right back down here" before he is physically carried off the field against his will
• Daniel Snyder remains the owner and Vinny Cerrato remains the GM
  

I think I'll be able to handle any of these events a bit better now that I've prepared myself.

Chris Samuels: An Appreciation

At the moment, there are a thousand stories, and infinite angles regarding the current plight of this once-proud franchise, and I'm not up to the task of weighing in all of them. [I do commend you to the Redskins Revolution posts over at Hogs Haven - they're generating something positive out of all the misery, and have helped me greatly in this autumn of our discontent.]

But I do want to address one thing today - I want to honor Chris Samuels for his singularly brilliant career with the Skins. I know he's not on IR or retired yet, but as I understand his condition (stenosis), doctors are likely to recommend that he never play again. I hope they do, and that he follows their recommendation, even though rejecting it might give the 2009 O-line a shot at being more productive this year. But the risk of paralysis is too great, and the potential reward of maybe a couple more wins isn't worth it - in any year, much less this one. So Chris, if we have indeed seen the last of you on the gridiron, just know that you won't be forgotten by the fans.

Let's review this great player's career:

• Drafted 3rd in 2000, Samuels is one of the few bets that has payed off handsomely for Washington (note: the Skins drafted LaVar Arrington with the 2nd pick that year)
• Spent his entire career with the team, through six coaching chances
• Elected to six Pro Bowls
• Chiefly responsible for blocking the side of the field that Clinton Portis made his personal stable boy for several seasons
• Classy: After he chop blocked the Bears' Antonio Garay, injuring him, Samuels apologized to both Garay and Lovie Smith
• Perhaps most notable of all, I can't remember screaming "C'mon Samuels!" in disgust after some ridiculous penalty or blown play. I have screamed nearly every other o-lineman's name in this spirit numerous times (See, e.g. Heyer, Stephon).

So if this is it for Chris Samuels in the burgundy and gold, I just want to say thanks and that I look forward to the day when No. 60 gets his name enshrined up the Ring of Fame.

Actuarial Hope

Daniel Snyder was born on November 23, 1965.

A white male born in that year has a life expectancy of 68 years. Figuring that Snyder's ability to pay for top quality health care is offset by a lifetime of steaks and denial, he'll be under by about Thanksgiving of 2033.

Hail 2034 Skins!

No More Fix-a-flat

We need new tires.

I understand everything said about zorn and campbell and will not be sad if snyder releases them but we all have to admit that that is just a song and dance. a song that we all know and a dance that is all too firmiliar.
this is not rocket science, its football. do the research. no team has ever won a super bowl with either a bad defense, or a bad offensive line. we have the defense covered...
i will not back down form our core problem, the o line, and i know its becoming cliche. even the td pass to portis was jc running for his life after EVERYONE on the oline got beat except rabauch who was trying to block 2.
jc had no time, no developing plays were called, portis is a blocker, cooley is a blocker, davis becomes a reciever, portis get tackled for a safety, portis avg 3 yd/carry, and sellars taking on free rushers well behind the line, are all a product of a totally worthless oline.

if we dont sign 2 olinemen this week, snyderatto is taking a dive on this season.

Soooooo bad.

31 flavors of suck - that's what the Redskins have been serving up this year. If it weren't so soul-crushing, the variety of ways the Skins are able to lose and underperform is an exciting display of diversified ineptitude. Against Carolina, who seemed determined to gift wrap this one for Washington, the team reached deep into its bag of fail and brought up some truly unique awfulness.

Let's review some of the new tricks on display for this one:

• DeAngelo Hall, 25 years old and employed in a position that involves speed, agility, reaction time and tackling, getting juked by a 34 year old, immobile quarterback. When the game was on the line.
• Devin Thomas getting a chance to redeem the last two years of fail on the Skins' only deep ball of the game, but instead opting for a spot-on impression of Carlos Rogers' slippy hands.
• Mike Sellers running laterally in the end zone for a safety. (OK this wasn't a new trick, but he hadn't tried it in his own endzone before).
• Byron Westbrook's obvious crush on Randle El was revealed to the world. How embarrassing.
• Special teams helped lose a game - I think they thought the offense looked lonely.
• Chris Samuels was revealed as the Atlas of this team, holding it on his shoulders - when he went out, three players (Batiste, Cooley and Portis) were summoned to try to stand in for the rock of the line.
• The Orakpo in coverage experiment is less successful than Jordan in MLB. Why retard a brilliant defensive end career with this crap?
• The we-don't-need-second-half-timeouts strategy was unveiled in all its glory.
  

You can't say they aren't innovators.

Need a Laugh About the Skins' Plight?

This video should help a bit.

We Beat the Lions at Something!

Harris Interactive Poll, October 7, 2009

SUPER BOWL WINNER
"Regardless of your favorite team, who do you think will win the Super Bowl this year?"

Base: Adults who follow professional football

Total
%
Pittsburgh Steelers
19
New England Patriots
17
Indianapolis Colts
7
Dallas Cowboys
6
Chicago Bears
5
New York Giants
5
Philadelphia Eagles
5
Green Bay Packers
4
Minnesota Vikings
4
Tennessee Titans
4
Baltimore Ravens
3
San Diego Chargers
3
Atlanta Falcons
2
Seattle Seahawks
2
New Orleans Saints
2
Carolina Panthers
1
Denver Broncos
1
New York Jets
1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1
Oakland Raiders
1
Miami Dolphins
1
Arizona Cardinals
1
Cleveland Browns
1
Cincinnati Bengals
1
Kansas City Chiefs
*
St. Louis Rams
*
Jacksonville Jaguars
*
San Francisco 49ers
*
Buffalo Bills
*
Houston Texans
*
Washington Redskins
*
Detroit Lions
*


* indicates response of less than 0.5 percent

Could be worse, right?

There are two big things that NFL teams cannot control that help form their destiny: 1) Injuries, and 2) Schedule.

For instance, did you know that the 2009 New England Patriots are the first NFL team to face undefeated opponents in 5 consecutive games? Impressive.

After losing to the Giants in the opener here is the Redskins schedule

Rams (0-4)
Lions (0-3)
Bucs (0-4)
Panthers (0-3)
Chiefs (0-4)

So, barring a Win by the Chiefs vs. Dallas this weekend, the Redskins will have played FIVE consecutive teams with ZERO Wins.

Week 4 Gold Stars

1. Jason Campbell - JC had about the worst first half in his career, but then shook it off and led the team to a come from behind victory. High point: The revival of the deep ball and the quick strike on the Moss TD. Low point: Hard to choose, but I've got to go with striking the official in the head, and nearly getting picked. Assist goes to Zorn for sticking with him and letting this team feel like they can do something right with their offense, instead of panicking and trying to reinvent the wheel mid-game.
2. Justin Tryon - The goat of 2008 (and Donnie Avery starmaker) redeems himself with solid tackling and an impressive sack! I vow to stop swearing when I see him on the field.
3. London Fletcher - Ho hum. Another week, another ridiculous performance by the MLB. Defensive MVP by a mile thus far.
   
4. Jim Zorn/Mike Sellers/Clinton Portis/Stephon Heyer/Chad Rinehart - Okay, I know that Heyer and Rinehart got us in a hole early, but they played decently in the second half. The reason this group gets a gold star is for the first and ten call after two consecutive 3-and-outs. Run off right tackle! Five yards. Two plays later - run right! Negative one yard, but still, it was to the right! All in all, Zorn called 11 running plays to the right, gaining 47 yards, a 4.3 average. That is good playcalling my friends, because it established an entire side of the field that we could run to, after defenses had been eating up our Only Run Left Offense (which surprisingly hasn't caught on in the NFL like the West Coast Offense has). Way to go guys!
5. Santana Moss - That double move on Tampa's star corner was nasty.

To the right!

Hello, McFly Awards

• Malcolm Kelly - As Micah said, if you hadn't committed a boneheaded holding penalty, I wouldn't have know you were active for this game.
• Sleepy Davis and Devin Thomas - Different week, same disappointment.
• Carlos Rogers - I don't think I've ever been more upset with a dropped interception in my life. And he got burned on the TD.
  
• Shaun Suisham - A 17 yard punt? And your entire job duties involve kicking? It's like a painter who can only use left to right brushstrokes, and needs a specialist for right to left.
  

Making Sense

"...if a call is made defensively, let's go out and execute that call. You look at the film, we're not executing our calls. It's as simple as that.

So I don't know about identity. If the call is made and you ain't executing, the identity is you ain't executing the call. Let's just get back to doing that."

-London Fletcher, the NFL's leading tackler

Week 4 Game Plan: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rebound Dinner Party
So you've got company coming over this weekend, and you want to overcome the embarassment of a less than successful gala last time around? Have no fear - below you'll find everything you need to delight your guests and get your mojo back.

But first, you've got to prepare for your guests - what do your guests like to do?

Tampa Bay is averaging 210 yards passing and 86 yards rushing per game. Those are manageable numbers for any host, but the scary number is 13.7. That's how many points the Bucs are scoring per game, including just getting blanked by the Giants. It's not a scary number by itself, but as in all things football, points are relative. And the Redskins are sporting a 13.3 points per game average.

On the other side of the ball, the Skins are allowing an average of 16.3 points on them, while the hapless Bucs are giving up a 30 spot on average, on 432 yards surrendered every sixty minutes. The most important stat for the Skins offense is the Bucs' 187 rushing yards allowed per game.

Which leads me to my recipe for success in Week 4.

Buc Thrashing Stew (serves 92,000)
Ingredients

• 22 Rushes of Clinton Portis
• 8 Rushes of Ladell Betts
• 6 Rushes of Marcus Mason (you can substitute Anthony Alridge rushes here)
• 2 Endaround Second Half Rushes by a Speedy Wide Receiver (be sure not to throw this in too early -it'll spoil the dish!)
• 20 Short Passes (mostly over the middle) from Jason Campbell
• 4 Ten-second NFL Films slow-mo spirals from Jason Campbell
• Add a dash of Suisham to taste

Mix ingredients liberally, and don't be afraid to toss in your favorite spices! This recipe doesn't require precision, just a basic understanding of your ingredients. The dish should look something like this:

Finding My Chi...

watching some locker room interviews got me bummed out and made me realize some things. mainly, regardless of the way our team is acting, the season is not over.
the steelers are 1-2. no one is freaking out abou them and more importantly, they are not freaking out internally. but they lost to the bengals. the bengals who were 4-11 last year. i have a feeling a lot of people would argue that the bengals are a different team this year and i would agree.
so, is detroit the same team as last year? at least 7 of their starting 22 are brand new. new coach. new star college qb. their previous 2 losses were to the unbeaten saints (lions put up 27 on them) and the unbeaten vikings (lions led 10-0 at halftime). they beat us at their home field and they beat us by 4. one loss. we need to keep that in perspective. im not saying that we dont have problems, im saying that the tennessee titans arent packing up their locker room at 0-3 because its only week 3 for them.
we may lose 10 more and then i will bitch and moan but right now, our team needs to realize how much talent we have, how many positives there have been, and put it all together and beat the bucs. then we'll worry about the panthers and so on.
lets beat dallas this year...twice

Who Holds Onto the Ball Too Long?

Who do ya think?

According to Fanhouse, no QB has held onto the ball longer during his sacks than Campbell, averaging an astonishing 3.66 seconds. The average NFL sack occurs at 2.7 seconds after the snap, therefore Campbell needs to get the ball out earlier.

To put Campbell's almost 4 seconds into perspective, Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger have been sacked 9 times, at an average time of 2.5 seconds.

More credit needs to be given to the O-line that despite Campbell being one of the slowest to get the ball out, he has only been sacked 3 times. And more credit needs to be given to Campbell that he is averaging almost 10 yards per carry on his runs when he has taken off.

Week 2 Mega Stats Review

Let's rank all parts of the Redskins so far:

Offensive Line

Run-Blocking

ALY = 3.48, 23

Power Success = 75%, 12

Stuffed = 16%, 16

Pass-Blocking

Adjusted Sack Rate = 6.9%, 25

Current Grade = C-

Running Back

Clinton Portis

DYAR =-7, 32

DVOA=-13.8%, 31

Success Rate=34%, 36

Current Grade = C-

(Portis would get a D, but the O-Line is bad too. Ladell Betts looked even worse)

Quarterback

Jason Campbell

DYAR=121, 14

DVOA=17.8%, 14

1 TD, 1 FL, 1 INT, 68.9 C%

4 rush, 48 yds.

Considering the O-Line, the lack of support from the RB position, and the lack of production from WR1 and WR2, Jason Campbell has had an excellent year so far. Lack of TDs is the only thing holding him back from A.

Current Grade = B+

Wide Receivers - Tight Ends

Antwaan Randle El

DYAR=38, 17

15 rec, 137 yds

Catch rate=73%

Malcolm Kelly

DYAR=6, 45

Catch Rate=71%

Chris Cooley

DYAR=36, 8

Opposing teams are intentionally concentrating on stopping the only deep threat, Santana Moss, who is having a terrible start to the year and his lowest 2-game catch total in years. This is not necessaruly a bad thing as it has allowed Randle El to thrive in the slot, Cooley to continue his Top 10 production, and allowed Malcolm Kelly to get in the flow of the offense.

Current Grade = B-

Defensive Line

Run-Blocking

ALY=3.82, RB Yds=4.74, Power Success=0%, 6

10+ Rank, 27, Stuffed=30%, 4

Pass-Blocking

2 Sacks, Adj Sack rate=4.2%, 23

Current Grade = B-

Doing a great job against the run but they need to get more pressure on the QB.

Linebackers

The Redskins are 9th in the NFL at stopping the run, and 27th at preventing runs of 10+ yards. Not a good sign of the ability of the LBs to stop RBs at the second level beyond the line. Part of this is also on the secondary, but Orakpo's lack of tackles is also worrisome. So far the experiment is questionable. Huge credit goes to London Fletcher for doing his best to pick up the slack.

Current Grade = C

Secondary

Pass Defense=13.3%, 17

There were rumblings that the 2009 Redskins defense could be one of its best ever. Not with a secondary playing like this. Loaded with blue chip players at their peak NFL age: LaRon Landry (Rd 1, age 24), Carlos Rogers (Rd 1, age 28), DeAngelo Hall (Rd 1, age 25), Fred Smoot (Rd 2, age 30), plus overachieving playmaker Chris Horton, and one of the best off-the-bench safety in the NFL, Reed Doughty on paper this could be the #1 secondary in the NFL. They aren't even average, and were exposed repeatedly by a Giants passing offense featuring a bunch of no-name WRs.

Current Grade = C-

Overall Team Grade = C

The Redskins are perfectly average. The O-Line is in shambles and as currently constructed look to be about a D going forward. The good news is that they have a RB good enough to carry the ground game to a C despite the O-Line. The passing offense continues to grow and could reach B. The D-line is excellent. The LBs can reach all the way to an A/B grade but that requires some huge progress by Orakpo. The secondary is one of the most talented units in the league but is seriously underachieving. The upside is there.

Week 2 O-Line Stats Review

O-Line Baby!

Average Line Yards - Redskins

Entire Line: 3.48... 23rd in the NFL, i.e. bad, i.e. C-/D+

(and that was with Thomas, just you wait)

Let's break out ALYs by sector:

Left End, 3.00. Yikes. Big drop-off from last year.

Left Tackle, 4.45. Not bad, about NFL average. Sup Chris Samuels and Dockery!

Mid/Guard, 3.32. Below average

Right Tackle, 3.16. Awful. This side of the line has been rush blocking terribly.

Right End, 2.13. SO BAD.

So to recap, left side of the line is below average except for runs at the LT and they are barely average. Middle runs below average too. The right side of the line is pure SUCK. And again, that was WITH Thomas.

Want to guess how often the Redskins run to the right side? 14%, i.e. just enough to pretend like they aren't petrified that every rush to the right side is like having the QB kneel down.

The right side of the line is now an undrafted FA, Heyer, and Rinehart, a 3rd round pick 2 years ago. Things are looking really, really grim on the O-line. Pray for a miracle Samuels injury-free year....

Week 3 Game Plan: Detroit Lions

Strategy: Win the game (by any means necessary).

While last week's expectations led to frustration when the Skins couldn't explode offensively over a weak foe, I think the fans are just looking for a W this week. I know I am.

Gravy Items
(Things that would be great to see in addition to a W - not that I'm picky)

• The emergence of an offensive personality and a rhythm that spans return to touchdown
• Brian Orakpo makes a couple of big plays
• Santana and Portis each have a great game
• No horrible missed tackles - run-of-the-mill missed tackles, okay, but just none of the tear-out-your-eyes variety
• A coherent, stable O-line
• "Hip-Hip-HOORAY!!!"

Gravy with extra syrup item

Must Watch Viewing

NFL.com mic'd up Campbell and Zorn during the Rams game.
Watch here.
It's incredibly insightful into both men's characters and what was actually happening during the game. Also, check out the weird moment at 3:30. Just watch.

Victories vs. Respect

The St. Louis game will no doubt be most remembered for the fact that the fans at FedEx, frustrated with the red zone letdowns, booed their team when the Redskins went into the victory formation to kneel out the game. Not everyone booed, but most felt a kind of dejection that didn't match the fact that the Redskins had a victory this Sunday. I think what prompted the booing was the sense that the performance against the Rams was so nakedly mediocre that it killed off a sense of hope that the Redskins could be an exciting Cinderella team that surprised the league this year.

Essentially, we beat the Rams, but we failed to beat the expectations of the power rankings and the columnists who don't see this year's team as a contender. For fans like me, the Redskins need to be beating not only the squad across the sideline, but the doubters in the media booths and television studios. Making the talking heads mention the Redskins when they discuss the NFC East makes a win a real victory, and the Skins failed to accomplish that this week. If this were week 14, and the Redskins already had 7 or 8 wins, there wouldn't be booing because the win would be more important than earning the league's respect. But it's too early in the season for a win that doesn't generate any more respect to feel all that good. Last year's improbable road victories against the Eagles and Cowboys, and home win against the Saints were more than just Ws - they were performances that demanded respect.

The road ahead does not look promising for the Skins - the next five games could each result in victories without added respect. A loss in any of those games will be a double whammy.

There were many positive developments in this game but the fans were left without a signature moment of explosive success, one that we could carry around with us in our imaginations in the weeks ahead, thinking that Dallas better watch out, because we'll drop that bomb on them any time we please. Instead, our heads are filled with the image of Clinton Portis overthrowing a fade route to Chris Cooley in the endzone.

Week 2 Game Plan: St. Louis Rams

Obviously a loss would be catastrophic, and on any given Sunday, etc., but seriously, the Redskins will win this football game. If the running game collapses (Samuels sits out, Portis tweaks a hammy, and Rams D-Line comes strong), and the passing game deflates (Moss flips out again, Otogwe snags two INTs and forces a fumble, and Randle El throws a pick), and special teams gives up a runback and fumbles a punt return, the defense could still win this game for the Skins.

I think that the chance of the first three fails all happening is very low, so I'll be watching this game primarily to learn more about the Redskins' persona in 2009. When a substantially weaker foe enables Zorn to dictate the style and pace of the game, what does he call? Air Coryell plus slant routes and 40 passing plays? 48 carries right into the Rams' teeth? Go for it on 4th and 1 from the Rams' 45 in the second quarter or punt? Watching the Skins play a game where they should have options will be enlightening, and I really hope I don't come away thinking that Zorn is coaching not-to-lose rather than to win. I have to say that in my memory of the 2008 victories, I don't recall having the sense that the Redskins were firmly in control of any of those games - often ahead but not really forcing the other side to play their game.

It's important that whatever the game plan, the Skins develop an offensive rhythm. I'd like to see 3 or 4 consecutive pass plays in the first half, and a smashmouth run series. Let's see what happens when the Skins stretch their legs...

My aspirational image for Week 2

Great Article

Boswell today in the Post.

6 active WRS?

Some interesting pre-game roster decisions in this post from RI.

I was really surprised Montgomery was not active, simply because of how
much I expected Haynesworth to be on the field Sunday. The coaching staff chose
to have rookie wide receiver Marko Mitchell active in Week 1, and it came down
to a decision between Mitchell and Montgomery, Coach Jim Zorn said.

"That was an issue for me," he said. "The issue for me was really going to be between Montgomery and Marko Mitchell. I had some four wide receiver stuff, and I didn't
want a receiver to go down and take us out of that. I left Marko up thinking
that we could put Phil Daniels inside if we got into trouble."

So the Redskins had 6 receivers active for the game:
Moss (1)
Randle El (slot)
Kelly (2)
Thomas
Kelly
Mitchell

What, is Jason Campbell about to turn into Drew Brees?

Apparently Jim Zorn feels that an explosive passing offense is just around the corner. During the game the Redskins ran only one play for Thomas, a reverse, and did not use Mitchell even though their first red zone visit was a perfect opportunity.

Next week, just load up another D lineman or O lineman.

Week 1 Thoughts + Stat of the Day

Busy week for me, so won't be posting much. I will be a force in the weeks to come. As the resident stats guy I offer only 1 stat that that pretty much explains the loss.

Here was the results of the first 6 times that the Giants were faced with a 3rd and long.

7 yd pass, 1st down
25 yd pass, 1st down
17 yd pass, 1st down
7 yd pass, 1st down
10 yd pass, 1st down
30 yd pass, Touchdown

The d-line and linebackers played their guts out (right Gibbs?), but when responsibility was turned over to the secondary they played terribly. 6 consecutive conversions on 3rd and long?

Props to the rest of the defensive front that no matter how poorly the secondary played, and no matter how many times the offense 3 and outed to put the defense right back in, they never gave up and continued to sustain excellence to the closing whistle.

1st week MVP - Defensive Line + Linebackers

At one point during the game London Fletcher had 15 tackles. So much for him being on the downside of his career.

Victor's Week 1 Recap

To me, this game boiled down to a metaphysical question - who are the 2009 Redskins?

Zorn's playcalling was erratic and the central feature of this loss. He didn't commit to the pass, even when it was working and Jason was getting the ball out quick. There were two memorable trick plays that fizzled loudly (the Randle El play, reverse to D. Thomas) and killed the Skins' momentum. The run wasn't there, and I didn't see any solid zone blocks after the first play. Kelly's and Davis' numbers weren't called nearly enough, nor did JZ give Santana a chance to find his groove after the ruckus.

Jason's confidence and rhythm weren't all there. Partly the playcalling, but audibling into a run up the middle on 3rd and 8 was a poor choice, and he threw an INT three yards past the line of scrimmage. I can't fault him too much for the fumble TD - most QBs (not all) would've lost that one. But what bothered me the most was the contrast between the look in Campbell's eyes before the snap ("I sure hope this works") and the look in Eli's pre-snap, which was efficient, penetrating and confident.

The defense was schizophrenic - see Josh's post.

Further, a rattled Moss and stupid penalties really disrupted this team. Everyone looked shaky and bogged down into their own world, rather than displaying the vision that comes from seeing what the other guy's doing and reacting fluidly.

The upside of this is that none of these issues seem permanent, as long as Zorn can come up with a better gameplan and implement a better in-game adjustment strategy.

The Giants are a very good team - if you were to take away Umenyiora's forced fumble and TD return, the Skins win by one. And most teams don't have Umenyiora.

Other bright spots:

• Few to no dropped passes
• Jacobs was limited to 46 yards on 16 carries
• Special teams was solid, with a spectacular fake field goal to boot
• Landry made a big play
• The Redskins are hitting hard - about five blue jerseys were on the ground, all from clean fierce plays
• Jason was getting the ball out real quick, and the O-line looked decent

This was an incredibly frustrating game to watch, but my takeaway is that the frustrations all created teachable moments. Let's just hope that Zorn, Blache, JC and the secondary learn the right lessons.

Grades
Offense: C
Defense: B
Special Teams: A
Coaching: D+

Great Article on Zorn, Campbell and Playcalling

I highly recommend this article by KC Joyner.

Jim Zorn as a Coach: Where Did the Risk-Taker Go?

Where the "Experts" Stand

Recorded here, various sports analysts' and publications' predictions as to the Redskins 2009 record.

The Sporting News: 5-11
Sports Illustrated's Peter King: 6-10 (Sports Illustrated Power Rank before Week 1: 24)
Hogs Haven: 10-6
Bodog Over/Under: 8 Wins
Mike & Mike: 8-8 (Strange note - they predict that only one team in the NFC will win more than 10 games, with Philly going 11-5)
FOX Sports: 8-8
Dan Steinberg, The Sports Bog: 7-9
Matt Terl, Redskins Blogger: 10-6
Washington Times: 9-7
Bill Simmons, ESPN Page 2: 10-6 (and getting a wildcard slot over the 10-6 Eagles)

As far as I can tell, Simmons is the only national figure/publication predicting that the Redskins will make the playoffs.

Week 1 Game Plan: NY Giants

First, before we turn to this week's matchup, let's take a minute to recap last year's debacle against the Giants. I do this not out of cruelty, but to set a low bar by which to measure this week's effort.


In the 2008 opener, the Redskins looked awful, like a D-II school with a 4-year old football program invited to play in the Swamp for the Gators' opener.



After the Giants scored on an 11 play drive to open the game, here is Washington's first series:
1st and 10 - Campbell sacked for minus 8 yards.
2nd and 18 - Portis up the middle for 3 yards.
3rd and 15 - False start on Heyer for minus 5 yards.
3rd and 20 - Portis up the middle for 5 yards.
4th and 15 - Brooks punts 34 yards.

Ouch.

The second series wasn't a whole lot better.
1st and 10 - False start on Randle El (?!?) for minus 5 yards.
1st and 15 - Incomplete pass.
2nd and 15 - Portis right guard for 3 yards.
3rd and 12 - Incomplete pass.
4th and 12 - Brooks punts 42 yards, but draws a roughing the kicker penalty! WASHINGTON FIRST DOWN!!!!
1st and 10 - Portis right tackle for 4 yards.
2nd and 6 - Betts left guard for nothing at all.
3rd and 6 - Incomplete pass.
4th and 6 - Brooks punts 27 yards.
(Wouldn't it have been smarter to just have Jason throw a 30-yard interception?)


That my friends is a brutal way to welcome the season. Also, and I can't even bring myself to describe this moment, but I'll just say Brandon Jacobs, Laron Landry and you know what I'm talking about. Shudder.

In the first two series last year, Campbell went 0-3 and took a sack, Portis averaged 3.75 yards on four carries, the punts could have been strongman boulder throws, the team had a 14% false start rate, and the only first down came from a penalty. These are stats to beat my friends, and I will consider myself thoroughly disappointed if the Skins can't outshine that performance in the first two possessions of 2009.

But was there a bright spot in 2008? Perhaps. At four minutes into the 2nd Quarter, the Giants went up 16-0 on a field goal. They didn't score for the next 41 minutes.

Presuming our defense isn't performing an elaborate version of punk'd on all of DC, and they go out there like, "Sike, thought you had a top 5 defense, didn't you?," this game will be about the Skins' offense, namely whether they can shake off the anemic 2008 offense monkey. The Giants' run game is strong, and should put up at least 10 points, and likely 14. But the Giants' passing game is very shaky and ripe for exploitation, even a pick-6 if the stars align (those being the constellation formed by Haynesworth, Orakpo, Fletcher, Hall and Landry).
The scary Giants D-line means that Campbell needs to get rid of the ball quickly. I like the shotgun formation, 2 TE sets, Portis cutblocks, and quick dumps over the middle to solve the blue wave. Kelly better have multiple catches.

Skins definitely win if:

• Giants are limited to less than 100 yards rushing
• Skins have a +2 turnover margin

Skins probably win if:

• Giants can't set up their passing game and Eli throws for less than 150 yards
  
• Skins put up 22 or more points

Skins probably lose if:

• Giants rush for >160 yards
• Giants pass for >200 yards
• Skins score fewer than 20 points

Giants definitely win if:

• Chris Samuels or Randy Thomas gets injured
• Gooseeggs appear next to the reception totals for Kelly, Thomas and Mitchell
• Eli forgets that he's Eli for the afternoon, and plays like Mr. "Eat Salad" of Indianapolis

Also, let's hope to start hearing this man's name about a dozen times each Sunday.

Update: Matt Mosely just wrote that Terrell Thomas will start at corner for an injured Aaron Ross, and will be covering Malcolm Kelly. Kelly has 28 pounds and four inches on Thomas. This match-up is tied with Samuels/Umenyiora for the top spot to watch.

J.Utt's 2009 Preseason Roster Analysis - OL Part 2

Offensive Line Pt.2

In Part 2 I'm going to drill down into the OL and talk about each linemen separately, starting with a true Hog, Chris Samuels.

Left Tackle - Chris Samuels

Chris Samuels is a 6-time Pro Bowler (including the last 4) and has anchored the left side of the line since he was the 3rd overall pick in 2000. In 6 of his 9 seasons, Samuels has played all 16 games. But the good times can't last forever and Samuels will be 32 at the start of the 2009 season and coming off a season cut short by a torn triceps injury. In addition to offseason triceps surgery, Samuels also had arthroscopic surgery on his knee to clean out cartilage. Based on age, offseason surgery, and Zorn admitting that the knee will most likely be an issue all season, it will be more difficult for Samuels to sustain his Pro Bowl caliber of play.

In the 14 games he played last year, Samuels was one of the best at his position. In terms of ALY (see here for definition), rushing plays towards the Left Tackle spot of the Redskins netted 5.12 ALY, 4th best in the NFL, and that included games where Samuels was out and the line played much more poorly. Samuels is an excellent run blocker and above average in pass blocking.

Grade: A-/B+

A healthy Samuels is an A+, but this is an older player fighting injuries so I'm going to bring him down just a bit.

Left Guard - Derrick Dockery

Returning to the Redskins after 2 years in Buffalo is Derrick Dockery, originally drafted by Washington in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft. Dockery had a successful, if nondescript, in his first tenure with the Redskins where he was known as an above average pass blocker. Upon becoming a free agent the Bills made him the 3rd richest Left Guard in NFL history when they signed him to a 7-year, $49 million dollar contract with an $18 million dollar signing bonus. Dockery in no way lived up to the size of his contract and was released by the Bills following his 2nd season there when he led the league in sacks allowed at 8.5.

But the Bills pain is the Redskins gain, because the team gets back a now reasonably priced LG who knows the system. He replaces a still serviceable, but much older Jason Kendall (35) who although played very well in stretches had a crucial mishap costing the Skins a game last year.

Grade: B-

Dockery is a consistent pass blocker who will fit in nicely next to Chris Samuels. He has never missed an NFL game which is an enormous benefit to the Redskins who are incredibly thin on the OL. He would be ranked higher except that his limited mobility and aggressiveness make him average as a run blocker and against rushers with speed and moves.

Center - Casey Rabach

Casey is dependable and a slightly above average NFL center who excels at run-blocking even against larger opponents. He's 31 so he may begin to enter the downside of his career, but he has only missed one start in 5 years which is again a huge advantage considering the lack of depth.

Grade: B

Right Guard - Randy Thomas

Randy Thomas is huge at 6'5", 320, and is an important part of whether the Redskins will have an effective line this year. He is the oldest of the starters at 33 and coming off minor offseason knee surgery. He played with a herniated disc for much of last year limiting his mobility, and missed a large part of 2007 with a triceps injury. Thomas is an above average guard but an injury waiting to happen.

Grade: C

Thomas is a good run- and pass-blocker and a solid part of the right side of the line, but is also an injury risk. HIs backups, Chad Rinehart and Jeremy Bridges are below-average substitutes and so Thomas gets a C instead of B.

Right Tackle - Stephon Heyer

Stephon is the weak link on an above-average line. He has the unhappy trifecta of not much experience, being injury prone, and low pedigree as he was an undrafted free agent out of Maryland. Heyer's ascendancy to starter reflects the poor way Jon Jansen's career ended and the Redskins lack of options due to not drafting enough linemen over the years. (We'll get into that in another post). Heyer has had enough good moments to believe that with some great coaching by Joe Bugel, and an injury-free year, that he can grow into at least an average RT.

Grade: C-

In summary the Washington OL is an above-average line going into 2009 but with injury concerns at LT, RG, and RT and not much depth. If Samuels or Thomas goes down it is going to be a long year.

Overall OL Grade: B (if stays healthy) / D (if gets hit by a major injury and cannot find an adequate bench or FA replacement)

J.Utt's 2009 Preseason Roster Analysis - OL Part1

Offensive Line

A lot of Redskins fans think that the Redskins OL had a pretty bad season in 2008. I disagree. I think the line had a good year overall with a few bad stretches, particularly towards the end of the year. According to Football Outsiders the Redskins had the 4th best run-blocking unit and the 15th best pass-blocking unit.

Here's a quick definition. Average Line Yards (ALY) takes into account what part of a RBs yards were made by the OL. If a RB gets a 4 yard carry the OL gets all the credit, 4 ALY. Let's say a RB gets a 70 yard carry. The OL gets full credit for the first 4 yards, plus half the credit for the next 6 yards because often WRs and TEs are blocking out there, plus the RB ability. Finally, everything after 10 yards, the OL gets no credit because everything after that is determined by the speed/skill of the RB, plus downfield blocks by non-linemen.

Put another way, let's say a team has a consistently good OL and a big, plodding RB who gets 6 yards a carry. The OL would get near 100% credit for the yards and so if the RB got 100 yards the OL would get 100 ALY. On the other hand let's say a team had a lousy OL where the RB often gets caught behind the line, but because of his talent every once in awhile he jukes 2 guys and then peels off a monster run, aka Barry Sanders. In that case of the 100 yards, maybe the OL gets 30 ALY.

This distinction allows you to figure out which rush yards the OL gets credit for. In the case of the Redskins, the OL gets credit for a LOT of the yards.

	TEAM	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	10+ Yards	10+ Rank	Stuffed
1	DEN	4.78	4.96	70.00%	10	17.00%	17	14.00%
2	NYJ	4.72	4.81	61.00%	25	20.00%	10	14.00%
3	NE	4.63	4.6	70.00%	12	16.00%	24	14.00%
4	NYG	4.62	5.28	62.00%	23	25.00%	2	17.00%
5	WAS	4.41	4.13	69.00%	14	13.00%	29	14.00%
6	NO	4.37	4.17	64.00%	18	15.00%	26	15.00%
7	SF	4.28	3.96	52.00%	32	13.00%	30	17.00%
8	CAR	4.26	5.01	79.00%	1	27.00%	1	19.00%
9	ATL	4.22	4.62	70.00%	11	23.00%	7	20.00%
10	HOU	4.19	4.43	70.00%	13	24.00%	5	18.00%
11	BAL	4.17	3.99	76.00%	3	16.00%	23	16.00%
12	MIN	4.13	4.63	73.00%	8	25.00%	4	19.00%
13	BUF	4.12	4.21	62.00%	24	16.00%	21	18.00%
14	DAL	4.1	4.48	68.00%	15	22.00%	8	18.00%
15	TEN	4.1	4.45	61.00%	26	24.00%	6	22.00%
16	JAC	4.09	4.06	76.00%	6	17.00%	20	18.00%

As you can see here, the Redskins had the 5th highest ALY in the NFL, indicating a good rushing attack based on OL work. Now take a look at the column "10+ yards". This is the percentage of total rush yards that were yards accumulated after the first 10 yards of a run. The Redskins were one of the worst teams in the NFL in this category. You can't fault the OL for that one. Also being stuffed is one of the most glaring problems of a bad OL. Looking at the last column you can see that the Redskins were tied for the lowest stuff rate in the NFL. Again, great work by the OL.

I won't spend much time talking about pass protection except to say that not only was the pass-blocking almost exactly average in terms of sacks per pass play, but two other points should be made about that statistic:

1) Campbell was slow to make decisions in the pocket and not particularly mobile, so I think he took more sacks than he needed to, and also gave up too many fumbles.

2) In pass-blocking, you have the same OL, lose Cooley as a below-average blocker who now goes out for passes, but then add Portis as a superior run-blocker.

Therefore, if Campbell improved his pocket awareness, the OL pass-blocking would have performed even better and probably finished in the top half of the pass-blocking in 2008.

Coming up in Part 2, the 2009 Offensive Line in more detail.